I realize that the VTOL concept has some big advantages but as an alternative, STOBAR is still a possible (intermediate to full CATOBAR maybe) option, no?
According to the Indians and the people at Eurofighter, the changes needed would be minimal and it could go off deck @ MTOW with minimal wind over deck ,heck even the Russians can launch their Su33's at 0-wind with a 190m weighing 38.000kg (4 tons over the max for the US Navy boats IIRC)
From a Chinese forum;
The Soviet Su-33KUB twin seated fighter-bomber weights in at 38 tonnes. This is a weight not seen by US carrier planes. The A-5 was the nightmare of US carrier weighting in at 34-36 tonnes. The yak-44e in planning also reached 38 tonnes. Can these planes really take-off from carriers?
From the 3rd take-off position at 195m, under 0 airspeed, Su-33 can still take-off with 35000kg weight with no dip in take-off profile. On leaving the bow of the ship the plane reaches a speed of 179km/h, reaching the apex height of 30m after 4 seconds, and glides for 6 seconds more before recovery at 312km/h
At 38000kg, the take-off profile is an inverted s shape, with maximum point at 27.4m and minimum height of 20.2m. A recovery glide time of 11 secs and recover speed of 400km/h.
So I don't see why they couldn't use the EF ,which has a better T/W ratio and lower wingload than both the 33T SU33 and optional 38T version.
Certainly if they(EF) would install the stronger engines (up to 26KLbs) and TVC system.
They would need ,at worst, about 550ft feet of runway at 0 wind and MTOW, much less even when doing missions that don't need the AC be loaded till MTOW (BARCAP or FORCAP).
The biggest challenge doesn't seem to be the technical side but rather the contract negotiations which would need to be done with cost in mind ,like not giving the supplier a blank development check and time frame.
I'm not holding my breath on that one.
PS Purely hypothetical a STOBAR carrier could even be equipped with something like a Do228 type of VSTOL-AEW platform or Transport with some extra beef-up to strengthen the frame to allow for more powerful engines, a bit of extra fuel and the hook.