Some observations
Some observations
1) Lithium Batteries do sometimes catch fire, but Boeing has had two battery fires with fewer than 50 units shipped. This points to a design flaw somewhere, be it in the battery itself, charging circuit, monitoring software etc. Such a flaw can be found and it can be fixed.
2) Lithium-ion batteries catch fire more often than other kinds. I have no doubt that Boeing's woes will spur innovation to make them safer, but on a timescale that is too long for the current model 787. It may not be possible to make them as safe as other battery technologies. In the medium term, we may need to accept a higher risk that batteries occasionally catch fire, perhaps in the same way that we accept that engines do.
3) Boeing really can't move to another battery technology without unraveling other parts of the design, it is just not feasible. Other technologies have about 1/2 the energy density. I suspect that it would be similarly too late to make a change for the A350 without incurring major delays.
4) Boeing won't lose any orders as a result. New sales may be deferred, but there should be no net loss. There are no other alternatives for a company looking for new aircraft in this class. Moving the to the A350 is not an option for those in the queue for the 787. Not only is the queue nearly as long for the A350, the product is not even shipping yet and is likely to be subject to delays, as the 787 was.
I expect a flaw will be found, but even when fixed, the batteries will be at higher risk of failure than other kinds. The question is whether this higher risk will be admitted and accepted by the FAA and other regulatory bodies.
Last edited by glenbrook; 21st Jan 2013 at 14:23.