STANSTED - 2

[STN Ramp Rat]

Whats for the future?

So MAG is the winner and the bookiesfavourite won the race; what will this mean for Stansted?

Everyone has had time to size each other up and I am sure there have been some behind the scenes discussions betweenthe key players about what is planned. MAG has a good reputation with airportsbut they are significant differences between them. Manchester is the flagshipwith a good mix of scheduled traffic and is the second busiest charter airportin the country after Gatwick It also has a growing low cost business. EastMidlands is a primarily a cargo airport with a low cost passenger and charterprogram attached, when the runway wasclosed at EMA for resurfacing a few years ago it was done during the day toprotect the night time cargo program. Bournemouth has significant engineeringfacilities on site and it more about these than the flying program.

As has already been pointed out MAGhave a significant portion of the UK cargo market and this should not beunderestimated but I don’t see a significant increase in flights for Stansted; themain cargo flows to or from Europe operate from the continent where truckingdoes not involve a ferry or the tunnel. Thisleaves the possibility of the perishable traffic from Manston or the fewremaining cargo flights from Heathrow. DHL’s operations are focused on WestLondon and they operate the evening out bounds from Heathrow and the morningarrivals into Luton; it would take a lot of time effort and planning to refocusthe entire distribution effort to the East and all the other package operatorsare already at Stansted.

It will be interesting to see ifthey can develop the charter traffic from Stansted, it has been on a gradualdecline for a long time now; given that the main tour operators sell a year inadvance don’t expect any quick move in this area. It is possible they couldattract the likes of TUi or Thomas Cook to move their entire London program to Stanstedwith the likes of a dedicated satellite lounges dedicated parking etc etc. Thistoo is a long term project.

The scheduled service market willbe a very tough nut to crack; there are deep seated and unwritten laws on aviation in the South East; scheduledservice full service traffic goes from Heathrow and charter from Gatwick; whenthe low cost carriers came they had to find themselves a home this has provedto be Stansted and Gatwick, encouraging scheduled service traffic into Stanstedwhen it is configured for the low cost market is going to be tough.

This leaves the low cost segment;Easyjet are moving closer to the full service model and have shown no signs of wantingto expand at Stansted whilst Ryanair have stayed true to the low cost model andfocused on Stansted. MAG and Ryanair have “history”; this history is all aboutManchester never about East Midlands or Bournemouth so it remains to be seenhow Stansted will fit into this. If Manchester think they can change Stansted’splace in South East Airport’s hierarchy they may try to reduce the Ryanairdominance by raising prices and improving facilities. If they do this expect tosee histrionics from Ryanair, expect to see them pull out aircraft and cancelroutes. Based on previous history Manchester will win and Ryanair will quietlycome back. If they don’t think they canchange Stansted’s position then expect to see them chase Wizz and other Lutonoperators.

Time will tell what they have planned and I amsure there will be press releases in the next few hours and days indicating their thinking and the plans they have.