Last time an overt incursion was done was by an Argie Kid who was a 'Mathis Rust Wannbe'. He nicked his old man's Cessna and flew from Argentina to MPA with a peace offering of a box of 50 oranges and a box oftea bags. Flew most of the trip at low level as well from what I heard,but that's no help when all of the RAF AD Radars down there are on top of mountains. Needless to say he was escorted in by a couple of F3's well before crossing the coast and was looking at the wrong end of a number of loaded L85A1's when he came to a halt. (Both himself (after a few days in the nick) and the plane were returned to Argentina, while the Oranges and Tea Bags were confiscated).
There are only two places were a ship of any size can land and off load without the help of landing craft of some sort (which the Argies have no way of getting there as their Ampib capability is almost zero). In either case they are some distance from MPA and somebody will alert the British forces by telephone or radio if loads of Argies come pouring off a boat. At that point the infantry QRF deploys a blocking force and the Typhoon QRA is launched while the other 900 odd Brit servicemen arm up and deploy to defensive positions (and quite a lot of them are actually Army (RE, REME, R Sigs, etc.) and have done some form of infantry training in their time, plus most likely some have done combat time in AFG). CBFFI then phones home and asks for reinforcements. Try it from the Air, and if the Typhoon's don't nail them (oh dear, that compressive radar cover again), the Rapier FSC Batteries will (and of course should they be allowed to land, they will still be looking at the wrong side of the QRF's loaded weapons when they come to a halt (The place is not Entebbe). Of course there is another factor to take into accountand that is a lot of Chilean contractors work there, kill a few of those and I can see Chile throwing all of their teddy's out of the cot and the Argies will be facing F-16s as well.
As for any air battle –
Argies
24 aircraft with AAR capability that can lug ground attack weapons, none with any land attack PGM capacity.
7 AD Aircraft with no AAR capability, no credible BVR capability or defensive aids (thus limiting their range of operation and self-protection).
12 Fighter Bombers with no AAR capability, no credible BVR capability or defensive aids (thus limiting their range of operation and self-protection).
No AEW cover
V
UK
4 x 4.5 Generation aircraft with 16 x AIM-120 AMRAAM and 16 x AIM-132ASRAAM, 27MM Cannon and a comprehensive Defensive Aids System (normal QRA AD fit).
Multiple Rapier FSC all weather SAM batteries around the airfield each fitted with 8 missiles and capable of engaging 2 targets at the same time (Streets ahead of the FSA systems deployed in 1982 as regards reliability and effectiveness, plus the Argies can't avoid engagement by flying under the coverage of the system as they did in San Carlos).
Comprehensive ground based AD radar cover with integrated command and control, backed up by....
...The Guard ship (may or may not be an AAW ship (i.e. T45), but will have a 4.5 inch gun, Radar, Fighter Director plus some form of CIWS which actually works most of the time, and can communicate with Land and Air Forces, plus the UK.
Even if only the QRA Tiffys get off the deck, the chances are that a good quarter of the Argie air forces are dead before they even get close to MPA and any that do get through will be hacked down by the SAMs.
When the Argies took the place in 82, they had a lot of forces and only faced 40 odd bootnecks, even then it took them some time. OK, so they kick off with an SF attack on the main British base as they did in 82. The place is not a few huts at Moddybrook, its huge and there are a lot of items spread all over the place that they would have to hit at the same time to give them any chance of a successful airborne reinforcement before they are fighting the Brits who are armed 24/7 at the place (plus the problem of getting there without being spotted by some Bennie farmer or British patrol). Now they are a shadow of what they had in 82 and have to get past top of the range fighters, SAM and a 1000 odd lads and lasses who can be armed at short notice with automatic rifles and bigger stuff, with quite a few combat veterans in the mix. The art of holding the Falklands is not losing them in the first place, and what the UK has down there is more than enough to hold the place until the C-17s arrive.
Total number of Falkland Residents likely to vote in favour of joining Argentina that I know of in the three trips I've done down there in the last 25 years is a grand total of TWO, and they came to live there from France!!!
Last edited by MAINJAFAD; 14th Jan 2013 at 01:50.