Dont think the fleet will double by 2020, and only 300 or so pilots being hired 2013/14. Not many ore DEC's. @3500 pilots now, when will there be 7000 for the new guy to upgrade. 90 0r 120 380 are not replacements but the 330/340 and some 777 will be gone by 2017 and the 777ers start to be replaced. 12 years to upgrade might be bit long everyone is just guessing.remember that most of the upgrades this year will be those that were pasted over due to lack of hours which they have or will have.