...The numbers signing up should get close to half the pilot workforce fairly quickly...
TO have any effect a pilots' union must have the full support of the entire community - one half (or even three quarters) is not good enough.
The airline of course will make encouraging noises - it's to their advantage if the pilot community is divided.
If much more than handful sign up then the VAA pilots can say goodbye to their T&Cs unless the entire workforce signs up and I can's see that happening. Ah well...