And here's mine (with one extra category, 4a)
4a Number of overseas pilots with 1,500hrs+ TT and 100hrs+ ME time.
1 Increase
2 Increase
3 Increase
4 Increase
4a Large Increase
5 Increase
6 Same
7 Same
8 Same
9 Same
10 Same
Why? I think that the gap will be plugged by jacking up salaries for RJ and mid-jet first officers which will just suck in more people with high GA hours from overseas to fill these positions.
Before I get tarred with a Xenophobic brush, there is nothing wrong with hiring overseas pilots per se. The problem starts when the airlines hire a lot of overseas pilots. It is a known fact that many overseas workers are not going to settle here, but are just here to broaden their horizons before returning home. In the case of overseas pilots, this also means getting some jet experience before returning to parts of the world where there is less of a pilot shortage and airlines have higher experience requirements.
If the predictions are correct and aviation is going to expand for a while yet, packing the mid-hour jobs with overseas pilots who then return home once they hit the levels required for their own flag-carrier, is just a short-term fix which defers the pilot shortage and makes it bite at a higher experience level. It closes the door to gaining experience to those local people who have had to train in a country with much fewer GA routes to hours, which would be a more sustainable approach to curing the shortage.
(Dons asbestos jacket as this is always a controversial issue...)
[This message has been edited by foghorn (edited 31 January 2001).]