I'm not sure what figures you are using there overrun. I'm also not sure what you mean by "save the day". Would EMAS prevent a hull loss in this instance? Probably not. But would it have reduced the speed at final impact? Most certainly.
As Lyman has already suggested, you should look at the video of EMAS stopping a 727. I think it most definitely have made this accident less deadly. Until we know the actual speed of the end of the tu204 we won't know for sure.