Emirates
Navpi
I believe it has been rumoured that both BHX & EK have stated that the Manchester Middle East expansion has put pressure on the BHX service but I am not sure where the information has come from re the second service in particular. The downgrades from 428 to 360 seat aircraft since May are similar for both services.
The EK38 has good connections to Australia and during the Southern Hemisphere summer the loads are terrific.
I think the reason for the Manchester second 380 is due to the fact EK20 was doing very nicely as a two class 428 seat 77W and when they went to all three class versions there isn't enough capacity in the evening and it is not a case of just shifting pax to EK22 as this EK Dubai bank or wave whatever you want to call it does not offer the same connections.
BHX would have the same problem if a third service was added and if EK decided to go all three class. For six months of the year 360 seats would not be enough although EK have re-introduced an earlier hours Sydney departure ex Dubai connecting with from the Europen afternoon departures, which will help a little.
I can definitely say that all three Manchester - Dubai flights between May and November were definitely not full. They have been steady around 75-80% load factor based on the CAA stats with a peak in September at around 85%.
Pete