CARDIFF - 2

[TwinAisle]

Very interesting timelines on this....

Just before Christmas, when peoples' minds are generally elsewhere, and before other AMs have had a chance to look at this, our esteemed First Minister makes this announcement.

First question is WHY did he make it? There is as yet no deal; due diligence hasn't been started yet, and he clearly doesn't yet have an operator for the airport contracted. He didn't need to say anything - and yet he did.

Second question - did anyone else think it was odd that CJ made specific mention of BAMC and saving jobs there in his announcement?

I'll tell you what's happened here - Abertis have said they are throwing in the towel, and closing the place, since they just can't attract any serious operators who are prepared to start a significant number of routes. They can't attract a low cost operator, and even the stalwarts amongst the IT operators are saying no thanks. So they gave notice to CJ, via the airport management (notice btw that the process to replace the MD has been stopped - why would you bother if you weren't going to keep the place open?)

So why are they throwing the towel in now? Well, perhaps they were hoping for a definitive statement on APD by CJ, instead of the 'perhaps, one day, maybe in a few years, and perhaps only on a few flights'. That sort of weak decision making would be enough for me to bring forward hard decisions.

CJ is now in a corner. He can either preside over the closure of Wales' only international airport, with all the flak he'd get for that, along with either having to cover the costs of that runway (and that's not cheap!) for BAMC, or watching them bid adieu as well. Or he does what every cornered socialist does, and reaches for the public tit to buy himself some time.

Take away all the 'oh god isn't Carwyn just fab' from the Labour sheeple who would vote for him if he stamped on orphans' kittens, and I can hear no coherent argument about buying this place, apart from 'anyone must be better than Abertis'. That's not a business case.

Carwyn has not spoken to any airlines; just the unions etc on his committee. Perhaps as a barrister, he is obeying his training about never asking a question if you don't want to hear the answer.

Behind all this is the elephant in the room. The Cardiff market. If you start from the premise that it is too small, too poor and with too good a competitor airport too close by, pretty much every event at Cardiff over the last five years falls into place. And public ownership will do little more than hand someone else the poison chalice.

By the way, AirGuru - Air Koryo may spring to your teenage brain, but if that was a dig at certain airline industry professionals, I suggest you may consider that many of them have fine reputations that they are willing to go to law to defend. Not the first time you have had a dig at people who do jobs well that you can only begin to dream about understanding. Pack it in please.