BA are just sitting on those slots, mark my words within the next 18-24 months BA will certainly be out of DUB and most likely out of BHD as well.
Agreed, they are sitting in slots right now until they get more long-haul planes, but if they did not find the Ex-BMI routes to BHD/DUB profitable, it would have withdrawn them from those routes like they have done with Khartoum and Amritsar
But they have not done that, also you also have to note that LHR-DUB is the 3rd busiest route out of LHR and if they do get EI’s LHR slots, then they would have to state it will continue to run LHR-IRE even after integration (to please the relevant authorities)
Agreed BA have already gone from 8 announced to Dublin, only ever got to 7 and now down to 5 from S13
Easy and FLYBE do not fly to Ireland , they are domestic operators to BFS BHD...Easy did try once but were chased off by FR pretty well overnight , and that same scenario will happen again once FR get EI, the alleged replacemnt carriers will get a free run for a while , maybe even a season then they will be undercut and scheule matched until they leave, as in GO BUZZ and currently Whizz on CorkPoland
BA will never make money shorthaul and they just need feed for Longhaul ex ireland ,,,, thats the bit outside the UK, ....
BUT
Any brief look at Longhaul ex IRELAND tells you ba are finsihed,
Emirates Etihad and now Turkish have taken the longhaul traffic South and East and the 10-14 flights a day westbound to USA take that longhaul slice.
When BA left Ireland 20 years ago they had a Longhaul product ex IRELAND
However its moved now to the new hubs , new planes, lower fare, less termianl swaps etc.
IRELAND is tiny but supports Etihad x10 a week to go 12 from S13, 6x777 and 6x330
Emirates 777 X7 a week soon to go 14 daily
Turkish daily soon to go 10 a week 737-900
Ba will re visit code share with EI in IRELAND , not sure about domestic UK BHD MAN ABZ EDI but deffinitley IRELAND
But their feed has gone, maybe they dont need it as certainly their capapcity cut backs reflect this.
Easyjet and Flybe do fly to Ireland, only its the Northern Ireland bit...
LHR-DUB is the 3rd busiest out of LHR and the busiest out of DUB, also if BA felt that it is not good for the business to serve Ireland, they would have withdrawn the routes as soon as they intergrated BMI into BA
Remember if EI withdrew from LHR-DUB/BHD, then there would be higher demand on BA’s sevices (if codeshared by EI) and if done right, higher yields as well
BALHR, you need to understand that particularly in the case of domestic routes, BA has had to convince competition authority that they will support the regions of the UK and whether they wanted to do Belfast or not, they have to show that their take over of bmi will not be detrimental to domestic flying, similar reason why they have launched LBA LHR, a route that bmi axed years ago in favour of longer routes.
BA in Dublin, 8 a day from the outset was ambitious. Clearly slot holding. I dont see BA long term in DUB, though they will watch with interest what the outcome of FR takeover of EI is on that one.
So like their takeover of BMI, BA would have to convince the same authorities that it will continue to operate LHR-DUB/BHD for some time after the purchasing EI’s LHR slots
Remember, no government authority can force an airline to do a route that is unprofitable, we have moved on from this…
BA is the sort of airline that only operates routes if they are profitable (or in the case of connecting routes, contribute to profitable routes)
The reason why they launched LHR-LBA was that there was enough (and the right) demand to make the route work in terms of connections (other BA would not launch the route) and with the purchase of BMI, they had enough slots to launch the service (the lack of slots at LHR meant BA and other airlines cancelled smaller domestic routes in favour of medium/long-haul routes)
As for the future of LHR-DUB/BHD, well there is enough demand for those routes, but the question is are they profitable or do they contribute to profitable routes?
Who is 'we', I think readers in general with an interest in Ireland or UK aviation read this they understood the writer meant Ireland meaning the Republic of Ireland as most would know that easyJet do fly to Northern Ireland already.
What I have stated is that I count (for the purposes of aviation) Northern Ireland AND the Republic of Ireland as “Ireland” when referred to in this forum
Doe’s anybody have any disagreements with that?
In fact, I understand that the reason there are 4 LHR slot pairs excluded from the "agreement" is that these slots don't actually belong to EI - they are leased to EI by VS and are presently used to cover the 3x daily SNN-LHR and one of the daily DUB-LHR routings. As such, the assumption is that they will be returned to VS at some point in time.
To solve “competition concerns” maybe FR (via EI) could offer to operate LHR-DUB 4 X Daily on behalf of VS using those slots, that’s if DL allow VS to do so (not likely…)
FR will not be doing a deal with anybody, the relevant competition bodies will decide and any deal to sell EI to FR will most likely include some form of ringfencing of LHR Slots. Assuming FR are given approval, seems most unlikely.
The 4 slots pair not included in this deal (leased from VS) could be used to allow VS (or another operator) to operate LHR-DUB to fix any competition concerns (not that there are any)
If FR will not get approval to buy EI, then they will try again…
What else does FR need to do to get approval (they have already agreed to give the EI LHR slots and will hand over slots in relation to other UK-IRE routes to another airline?
Not entirely true, the issues are quite recent. EI had added codesharing on BFS LHR before bmi deal was done. Leaving one world not a big issue between EI / BA. There relationship really only come under the spot light an appears strained since bmi purchase.
This will sort itself out in time. Too much at stake for both parties, particularly BA.
This is another reason why I feel BA will still operate at least some kind of service to Ireland, if they felt operating the Ex-BMI routes to LHR-BHD/DUB was not worth straining their relationship with their close partner EI, then why are they still operating it?
I still think however that IAG should be the “white knight” and at the very least buy both the stakes held by the Irish Government and Ryanair (to make better use of the LHR slots and the potential deeper links)
They can still codeshare on BA’s Irish routes (LHR-DUB/BHD), they can make money without the costs of operating the routes, plus they can make further money (a lot at current rates) by selling the LHR slots in the first place
Remember also that BA is not “competition” for EI, but a relativity close partner for quite some time now
The bigger question here is that there is simply that there is there is a lack of space at LHR, this is hampering the BA + VS/LHR/London/England/UK from competing with its rivals and contributing to the economy, until that changes, users of LHR need to make some hard choices, for example do we need to cut frequency to the bare minimum that makes to work (like LHR-DUB) and which carriers can use LHR and which cannot (not though legal means, but though market forces)
We would not be having this problem is there where 4 runways at LHR…