I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? There's no way they could be used for Ireland services and offer meaningful competition to BA, and I wouldn't see the point in Aer Lingus launching long-haul flights from Heathrow, so the only obvious conclusion is that they'd be leased out to other airlines. So Ryanair is effectively offering to replace a situation where 2 airlines compete on DUB-LHR with one where BA has a monopoly on the route.
The reason they are retainng 4 slot pairs is for competition reasons, personally I think they will discontinue EI's services to LHR and then sell the remaining 4 slot pairs to BA
BA will not have a monopoly on LON-IRE (not LHR-IRE, there are several airports in LON), because Easyjet, Flybe and Ryanair thenselves will be competing on those routes
Remember what happened when Ryanair took over Buzz (the remains of Air UK that where not transfered to KLM), they will do the same to EI, and they have already starting the process...
However, simply cannot see FR gaining control. In my view not the right strategic partner/parent.
I agree, they have very diffrent business models, but they refuse to give up, I feel that they are only interested in EI as they where in Buzz, certain valueable assets that would work for them and disposing the rest
However EI should sell their LHR slots to BA, even if the takeover falls though (they can still codeshare on BA's LHR-DUB flight for example)
And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs?
EI's LHR-DUB route will shut down and those last 4 slots will also go to BA, without any comptition issues
I don't know but if I was part of the EC investigation team it would not look good from their point of view for BA to being given 100% control of IRL-LHR market. I see no other reason why FR would want to keep them.
If I was part of the EC team, then I would see that the LON-IRE (LHR-IRE is too narrowly focused) is still competitve with several operators (not just BA and FR)
It would seem to me also that BA have clearly nailed their colours to the mast regarding the relationship between them and EI and the value that they place on it. Assuming FR do not gain approval how does this action by BA bode for the future relationship with EI???
The BA-EI alliance has been weakening for the past 10 years at least (EI leaving OW for example) the latest being that BA cotinuing to operate the EX-BD LHR-DUB/BHD routes
BA should buy EI's LHR slots whatever happens, the is a lack of space at LHR for a start to lanuch new flights to compete with its rivals
Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?
It has been suggested that FR might do a deal with VS, but now it looks unlikely, I doubt if DL is interested in VS operating LHR-DUB (and LHR-MAM/EDI/ABZ for that matter), when they operate direct flights to Dublin from ATL and JFK)
It'd be the same as it's a central company that allocates the slots. So Ryanair could have an MOU with BA to transfer the slots to them, but Virgin could end up getting them or it could be split 50/50, or who knows CityJet could bid for them.
If Virgin is allowed by DL to operate LHR-IRE (unlikely), then they would get the 4 slot pairs FR is keeping (for now), CityJet already operate LCY-DUB, so no chance of them bidding (the bigger question should be would BA CityFlyer buy the airline...)
Comeon folkswe all must know EVERY word you read that allegedly comes from MOL is ALWAYS to be taken with a pinch of salt
The whole series of recent articles are those of a drowning man who has spent and wasted tens of millions on a gamble that HAS failed , its laughable
that he has us even trying to guage the possible outcomes
Unlike most his statements, this is a firm plan and not one of his idiotic comments
While I agree that MOL/FR is foolish to buy EI, they refuse to give up, honestly I expect it to go on and on until either they are sucessful or a "white knight" bidder emerges (the best one would be IAG)
LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months
If they could not prevent the EU forcing austerity on them, I doubt they can stop this entirely, FR/MOL are stubborn people, otherwise this would have died out long ago...