You are correct. BA not only have well over half the pax on Heathrow-Scotland P2P (which I derive from discussion with seatmates over the years), but also the "loss" caused by low attribution of through fares to the domestic sector, although appearing in the accountants books as such, will get nodded through by WW and the board who understand these things and the corporate benefit to long-haul. BMI's issue was that they had no long-haul out of Heathrow, and in latter years such traffic was just an accounting gift to their fellow Star Alliance partners. They got the long-haul benefit, while BMI took the connecting leg low revenue share losses.
The problem with Virgin Atlantic is that they don’t have too many long-haul routes either, remember the competition for transfers is not just from BA, but from AF/KL/DL, LH/LX/OS/SN/UA/AC, EK, QR
Virgin already has a large share of the London-Manchester/Glasgow P2P markets, but it’s done by rail and if they get East Coast (they going for another attempt), they will have a large share of the London-Edinburgh/Aberdeen P2P markets
T1 is due for demolition once T2 opens, I believe T2 is going to have the ability to handle domestic where as T3 does not have that facility, hence the connection from T1 to T3. Is T4 capable of domestic and international ?
VS has stated they want to move into T2, however they have now hooked up with Delta, who are based at T4…
VS have confirmed that they will not be moving there long haul ops to T2, Domestic ops will move to T2 in 2014 and they are discussing options with BAA to build some facility at T3 for domestic ops. DL and VS have also confirmed that they are looking at ways to consolidate their ops in T3 once the JV approved.
Hang on, I heard recently that they want to move to T2, remember BD was due to move into T2, trouble is that BA ended up buying the airline…
DL cannot really move into T3, HAH/BAA designated T4 for ST, T3 is O/A380 territory and if there is spare space, BA will call first dibs (they really want to use as little terminals as possible), they would really like a CTA area at T3, of course what they really like is a bigger T5…
"A generation ago you could connect from EVERYTHING to EVERYTHING at Heathrow"
You still can if the carriers have interline agreements.
Carriers haven't "thrown this seamless transition away". Many pax now book their flights themselves - usually on a point to point (PTP) basis using the cheapest fare for each carrier and often the shortest (sometimes under the MCT)connection time - I mean who wants to stay at LHR longer than necessary (or any airport for that matter). So with separate tickets comes separate contracts and no permission to interline (through-check) baggage.
Through fares are still quoted and bags may be through checked based on interline agreements in accordance with the IATA Resolution 780e.
I suspect that there will be some moves to accommodate VS/DL which has the whole of the south wing checkin area at T3. SQ recently "borrowed" space there from VS. Star Alliance has been accommodated.
LHR transfer baggage mishandling has significantly reduced with the advent of inter-terminal baggage tracking and the BRS. It is true that the more times you handle a bag the more likely it is to be mishandled but VS has an excellent record of safe delivery on the right flight/right day.
Is it not the case that HAH has designated T4 as the terminal for ST, DL moving to VS would mess that up, I expect either Skyteam moves to T3 or the new T2 or VS moves to T4
AFAIK, plse correct if it is wrong: (1) VS domestic will be in LHR-1 where there is an underused domestic pier; (2) when LHR-1 is demolished this will shift to LHR-2 where there will be a domestic arrivals area (as in LHR-5); (3) VS will move its entire LHR operation to LHR-2 taking the space originally earmarked for BD.
LHR-1 to LHR-3 is an easy transfer, whether on the airside bus or landslide via the tunnels that link the terminals and the bus/rail/tube stations.
Will BA move its LHR-1 operation to LHR-2 as well?
LHR-3 and LHR-4 do not have domestic arrival areas.
All 3 points (as for as know) are correct, I am not too sure about what BA is going to do how that it’s back to operating in 3 terminals at LHR, which is due to the fact they have bought BD, now I am hearing they are looking at buying EI ops at LHR
What BA really want is a bigger T5 containing all their operations, until then I would say the second best option would be either consolidating at T3 + T5 (which would require a CTA area at T3) or T2 + T5 (this means that BA get to use t of the newest and best terminals at LHR)
When T1 closes, the T1 operation moves to T3 as the STAR airlines will be moving to T2. What happens to BHD/DUB/LBA remains to be seen, as they need a domestic or CTA facility which will only be available for the T5 routes.
Could T5 be expanded enough to cope with BAs/BDs ops at T1, T3, T5 and EIs T1 ops (which they are looking at)?
I see a lot of discussion about how good the Delta onward connections will be for Virgin pax going onward in the USA.
However, the current Virgin routes, and the Delta network in the USA, do not mesh together well at all. The main hubs for Delta are (in rough order) Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, and Salt Lake. Virgin serves none of these.
Virgin's principal operations are to JFK, Los Angeles, etc. Although Delta are a major player at JFK, they do not have a lot of domestic connectivity there, most are low frequency and/or to other major places already served directly from London by one or the other of the two carriers. If you have ever actually tried to make a connection at JFK, it's probably the worst gateway for that in the USA. Delta's main domestic hub in the New York area is now La Guardia, which they have built up substantially in recent years.
Los Angeles is in a far corner of the USA and offers few onward connecting possibilities.
I certainly don't see Delta handing any market share from London to Atlanta or Detroit etc over to Virgin; these are some of their most profitable routes.
The only real benefit for DL is a bigger share on the LON-NYC market, but if really wants that, then they should buy AA (which would give then a even bigger share) and they will also get a bigger NYC share and a much bigger Latin American share
In other words, merging with AA and AS would be perfect for DL and would give them a leading route network; certainly dealing with AAs problems is better than dealing with VS as a junior partner as they try to compete with BA, LH-LX-OX-SN, AF-KL, EK and QR while SRB still in charge
As for DL's split ops in NYC, could they do a slot swap with JetBlue (they get DL's LGA slots and DL gets JB's slots at JFK)
What this will mean is that DL/AA's NYC hub is located at JFK, JetBlue's NYC ops would be at LGA and United remains at EWR
To be honest however VS is a rather good airline, the problem is that they have to share their local market with BA…