again, its worth thinking about what a success looks like from the Argentine side, rather than thinking about it from our side.
for Argentina a success is any confrontation which trumpets British military supremacy and persuades/coerces other LatAm states (regardless of how they feel privately) to show public support for Argentinas claim, and to enact measures that make civil life in the FI harder, and our military garrison there more expensive.
Argentina knows that it is about as likely to be able to undertake a full invasion of the Islands, defeating the current garrison/assets, and to then successfully defend its new possession as it is to build a new Death Star - moreover, it knows that an initial military victory would lead to a political and then military defeat: the UK's political/diplomatic/economic clout means that an Argentine invasion creates harsh words at the UN, sanctions from the EU and NATO countries, and the release of the LatAm countries from the political support they are currently obliged to give to Argentina - a political claim is one thing, a military invasion is quite another... it also knows that even without the CVS/SHAR/GR9, and with Argentine A-4's and Super Etendards at MPA, the RN's T45's and TLAM/SSN combination could make life there very difficult for the invaders.
Argentina knows that the Isladers are the biggest hole in its attempts to gain the Islands, it has to remove their legitimacy or their desire to remain in the British fold - to do that it has to either get Islanders/their government to be seen as aggressors towards Argentine Civilians, or make life there so expensive that they either leave, or the UK decides to leave.