702, been lurking for a while but finally taking the bait. Your logic seems sound but I reckon that ideology went out the window a long time ago.
While your numbers make complete sense, the only way we will know the actual truth is when there is a TANGIBLE improvement in the terms and conditions of employment on offer. There really is no other yardstick that can be applied in accurately determining the legitimacy of these so called looming pilot shortages.
For years, if not decades, we have been hearing the same old story of supply and demand.... too many pilots, not enough planes. This was a repetitive reason to decimate our working conditions. If the converse is true then there has to be a significant upswing in what we get paid and how we are treated by these airlines.
Too many careers have been destroyed by a perceived surplus of pilots with the omnipresent threats of furloughs, shutdowns and degradation of T n C's. It is sad to see how the stature of pilots has declined with an accelerating pace to where it is at this moment.
Until there is a dramatic shift in the opposite direction this article, to me, will remain a mediocre piece of fiction.