Basic math
43,000 retirements by 2020. That is roughly half of the Airline Pilots currently flying in the U.S.. There is a small percentage flying abroad and hundreds still on furlough(mostly the same pilots). With 3000 per year obtaining an ATP rating how does that not equal a pilot shortage? In 8 years you lose 43,000 and gain 24,000. Assuming zero growth at the Airlines and you will still have to compensate for losing 19,000 pilots overall. Lets not forget the higher minimums to qualify and the new rest rules. That i think should help the pilot community in the next few years.