as with all things, things change over time.
In the past a pilot was ahead of an aircraft, at this point it is becoming lagging the aircraft in general. Aircraft have become so sophisticated that to truly understand them, one does need in the equivalent of an additional engineers degree with an IT accompanying the 1! time ATPL exam. AF447 as a recent example, or Quantas Flight 32 where it DID go right, but probably WOULD have gone wrong without SO MUCH brain power on the flight deck plus auto calculation done by computers. (5 pilots, of who many seniors/ check ride officers etc)
It's just a fact that with todays complexity, an airline pilot needs to do an updated ATPL exam EVERY year just to stay on par with all that change, with ever rapid and new developments and technology. The flight envelope becoming ever more boxed in, and errors if they occur often times so complex that a human can now barely cope with them and with how fast things can escalate.
In the past Pilots had a very strong lobby, but that will change too as it is already. The pay WILL go down, workload WILL go up, until it is unsafe to the absurd level at which there will be so much economical pressure that indeed pilots will be made overredundant, and will be replaced by full fledged university graduates in the field of aerospace for instance. Nothing less will do. The term pilots will fade from history, and officers of a "high pedigree" will start to controle the aircraft. Be it if they will do it from the ground ("managing" more than one aircraft at a time, thus having profit for the company offsetting their higher pay) or on board the real aircraft, time will tell. But some trains are already doing so...
In reason, it will be a tight cooperation between these individuals and a very complex and robust automated flight system. So yes, in a way pilots will become extinct, but no they will be replaced by a different type of evolution officer, who MIGHT stay on the ground and controle more than 1 aircraft for "profit" purposses. We all know aviation safety is about profitability offsetting safety too often.
What one sees now is just an economical hollowing out of the flight deck in that any "highschool" kid can jump in the seat with 100.000 to spare? and cling on for his/her life hoping to make it big time a.s.a.p. with the interest rate looming over him/her of the loan, hoping NOT to get caught up in the future ways of after having to study VERY hard but for a relative short time (a year or two?), having to continue to study hard for the rest of his/her career and really having no free time at all unless they have an aptitude for studying and really nosocial life, their work being everything and all for them, if they wish it to be or not...
Last edited by b263354; 5th Dec 2012 at 16:52.