They dont need any of that stuff to take the Islands.
All they need to do is take MPA.
And for that, all you need is one or two ships, dont even have to be armed.
One or two other military aircraft with good endurance, dont have to be armed.
And, two Hercs, at most three, or similar aircraft of similar size, packed with their best commandos and pilots who are capable of flying at very low level.
And reasonably reliable intel about where significant elements of the RIC are.
Thats all it would take.
One surprise commando raid on MPA and Mare Harbour.
And, when you've secured the airfield, you bring in a couple of airliners with reinforcements. The British government hasnt even got the stomach to expel Abu Qatada let alone shoot down a 707 or two packed with Argentine troops.
Once disembarked, the troops fan out and mop up any resistance from the FIDF and RIC in the field. As soon as the situation is clearly lost, there is no way that COBRA will demand a suicide mission from those that are left. The order would go out to surrender.
Woodward and Thompson both concur and are on record to that effect. You dont need subs, you dont need destroyers, you dont need aircraft carriers, you dont even need Mirages.
If we lose MPA, we lose the Islands. End of.
We are absolutely in no position whatsoever to retake the islands by force - we dont have the tools, we dont have the people, we dont have the leaders or the national will and it'll take probably about 10 years of re-arming & retraining of capabilities that have been lost, by which time 90% of the sheeple will have forgotten about where the Falklands are and will find it very difficult to give a f**k.
It will bring down the UK Government of the day and whoever succeeds them will sweep the whole bloody lot under the carpet, not attempt to re-take the Islands (they cant - what would they do it with??) and will only drag out this reminder of national humiliation every now and again to remind the sheeple why their political opponents on whose watch it happened, why they are not fit to be elected again for a generation.
I reckon it'll happen sometime between 2015 and 2017. Just call it a gut feeling.