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Old 3rd Dec 2012, 21:12
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Fuji Abound
 
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To introduce some facts into this age old debate you have a 1 in 5 chance of killing yourself in a conventional forced landing. You can argue the toss on the stats., but that is the overall conclusions and experience in the States.

Inevitably that includes landings in unsuitable terrain, it includes landings in suitable terrain where the pilot lost control and doubtless it includes pilots that passed out, but there was no evidence they had when their body was recovered.

Never the less you have a 20% chance of killing yourself and of those that do that includes deaths in circumstances where the forced landing looked ideal. Fate can deal some very unkind blows and perfect fields can hide less than perfect obstacles that are invisible from 1,000 feet.

At the moment the statistical evidence is that the results after chute deployment approach a 100% surety of successful outcome.

So ignoring for one moment the actual circumstances which would you chose - a one in 5 chance of killing yourself or almost no chance?

Next a sensible pilot will factor in whether the particular circumstances of a forced landing distort the odds in favour of a better outcome without the chute. Lest we forget that decision needs to be taken pretty quickly, in reasonably or very stressful circumstances and not with the benefit of hind sight.

Does the field present any undue hazards,

Am I sure I can make the field and will not end up short, or long,

Do I regularly practice forced landings ( dare I say a Cirrus pilot may well not),

What impact might the wind have,

and most importantly,

taking everything into account am I sure I can beat the stats!

Beating stats is a dangerous game. Many think they can beat the stats of winning the lottery, but not many people would play Russian roulette with six bullets.

Lest we forget that is the choice that confronts every Cirrus pilot when the earth beckons.

Almost certainly the insurance companies want you to pull (and will question why you didnt if the outcome is less than good) (in the States they have taken to waving the excess where the chute is deployed), COPA pretty much wants you to pull, statistically you will need to justify why you didnt.

For all these reasons the decision is not as so often portrayed.

I find that most (and I agree not all) Cirrus pilots have had specialist training, well understand the decision they must make and few are the "amateurs" so often portrayed.

Until you have had an engine failure for real I don't think most pilots really appreciate the panic this can induce.

I don't think the comparison with glider pilots is reasonable. If you glide you are "doing" this sort of thing a lot of the time, air brakes and currency make a huge difference, never mind the lower landing speeds.

All I ask before we are so ready to criticise any pilot that pulls the chute is to at least ask of yourself the question what decision would you have taken - would you be so certain in the few minutes required to reach a decision that the outcome would be more successful with a forced landing. With hindsight you might have reached a different decision (I would love to see a picture of the field taken from the ground before I landed in it) but you don't have hindsight - the decisions needs to be taken now - later you may need to justify it.

In the case we are discussing the pilot doeskin need to justify the outcome. They both survived with very minor injuries, in the States the insurance company would have waived the excess, the aircraft could definitely fly again, the press haven't had a field day about another rich boy landing on a puppy farm and nearly wiping out the whole farm in a fireball, so everyone is happy except for a few that think they could have done a better job - but we will never know.

In short dont look at the photo in the papers, think about whole process and be certain if you can you WOULD have done a better job. If you are CERTAIN good for you, but lets hope you are never put to the test.

For me it is like some many real life situations, it is easy to talk the talk, it is easy to look at the photo, it is easy to say I could have done better - are you certain, absolutely certain you could have done better?

If you are certain I have total respect, if you think you would have done better but haven't asked yourself all of these questions (and others) then I dont respect your criticism.

Last edited by Fuji Abound; 3rd Dec 2012 at 21:19.
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