Passing the AIB means you're in with a chance but does not guarantee selection and yes the medical is done after the AIB. Once you've been told that you've passed your name goes into a pool and then the Board will look at all the names in it and take the best ones.
Well the $64,000 question - what chance does that give you as stick monkey/observer/ fishhead.
At the moment the Navy cannot recruit enough fishheads, er Warfare Officers. So if something showed up in the medical, after having passed for aircrew you could still go forward for fishhead. But believe it or not some medical standards are higher for fishhead than aircrew. Aircrew can join with vision less than perfect but the standard is higher for an Officer of the watch. The other thing to consider for aircrew is that more ratio of people chasing places is higher.
The Navy has also had problems getting people to join as observers, however I think this is changing. Although the problem is really getting enough people in to get a sufficient number front line, since high numbers of observers fail at different stages of training. Be under no illusion observers don't just sit there and look, they have a very demanding and challenging role - no matter if it is ASW, AEW, ASuW.
The Navy also has a severe lack of SHAR pilots. This is not because they can't get pilots but that alot of those streamed for SHAR are failing close to the end of a long training pipeline, approx 4ys.It looks like the Navy will possibly look to recruit more pilots direct from school rather than graduates. Because the pipeline is so long they are finding first tourist hitting squadrons at 26/27 yrs.
If you have any more questions on this just e-mail me.
FLY NAVY - EAT CRAB - DIG ARMY