Creampuff:
What more should the crew have done, and when, to “source the most recent Norfolk Island Airport forecast”, or to “seek and apply other relevant weather and other information”?
Assuming that Airservices still retained the FIS delivery responsibility for NFI at the time of the accident, as per my other posts and reference to the Airservices Act and the Airspace Act, your question could realistically be rephrased to ask what more could Airservices have done?
Under the provisions of the Australian AIP Gen 3.3-3 para 2.1, pilots are ultimately responsible for obtaining information necessary to make in-flight operational decisions, however Australian ATC also have an obligation under AIP Gen 3.3-4 para 2.5 to assist pilots in the information sourcing process by broadcasting at regular intervals on appropriate ATS frequencies the availability of
"pertinent operational information such as: a. meteorological conditions and the existence of non-routine MET products etc" . A SPECI and AMD TAF qualify as non-routine MET products.
If indeed Australia retains FIS delivery responsibility for NFI, then Airservices should have broadcasted on the appropriate HF frequencies, the availability of the 0739, and subsequent, SPECIs as well as the 0800 AMD TAF. Did Airservices fufil its obligations in this regard and, if not, why not? If Airservices had made the appropriate broadcasts on the appropriate SP6 HF frequencies, then the possibility exists that the flight crew of NGA may have been alerted a lot earlier to the changed and fluctuating weather conditions at NFI and taken appropriate diversion action earlier.
Kharon:
The temperature and dew point are very close, the wind is easing and there are clear indications of a bad patch approaching; with NLK being as fog prone as it is makes me wonder why there was no 'FG Prob' on the TAF, or a TEMPO or even an INTER for the later period of the 0700 TAF. The cloud base and visibility are fluctuating, the cloud is being called deteriorating between 1300' and 500' throughout the period.
Good point and another issue that needed to be investigated and commented on by the ATSB, particularly considering that CASA and the BoM worked on a project sometime around 2000, I think, to look at ways of improving met forecasting at NFI.