Senate Inquiry, Hearing Program 4th Nov 2011

[Sarcs]

Reference page 56 Appendix B of the ATSB report:

Flight plan submitted at Apia - METAR YSNF 180430Z 29014KT 9999 FEW008 22/18 Q1010 RMK RF00.0/000.0 HZ

METAR YSNF 180500Z 29014KT 9999 FEW015 22/18 Q1010 RMK RF00.0/000.0 HZ

Takeoff from Apia, Samoa at 0545 UTC - METAR YSNF 180530Z 29013KT 9999 FEW010 22/18 Q1011 RMK RF00.0/000.0 HZ

METAR YSNF 180600Z 31011KT 9999 FEW008 BKN025 21/19 Q1011 RMK RF00.0/000.0 HZ

First reported weather observation at 0800 UTC- METAR YSNF 180630Z 30009KT 9999 FEW006 BKN024 21/19 Q1011 RMK RF00.0/000.0 CLOSE TILL 1930UTC
(Note: Reported as 6000ft)

METAR YSNF 180700Z AUTO 29011KT 9999 BKN017 BKN024 21/19 Q1011 RMK RF00.0/000.0

METAR YSNF 180730Z AUTO 29010KT 9999 OVC013 21/19 Q1012 RMK RF00.0/000.0

SPECI YSNF 180739Z AUTO 29010KT 9999 OVC011 21/19 Q1012 RMK RF00.0/000.0

Second reported weather observation at 0800 UTC and Norfolk Island TAF amended at 1803 - SPECI YSNF 180800Z AUTO 29008KT 9999 OVC011 21/19 Q1012 RMK RF00.0/000.0

SPECI YSNF 180830Z AUTO 22007KT 9999 BKN003 OVC009 20/19 Q1013 RMK RF00.0/000.0

SPECI YSNF 180856Z AUTO 21007KT 9999 SCT005 SCT012 OVC015 20/19 Q1013 RMK RF00.0/000.0

METAR YSNF 180900Z AUTO 20007KT 8000 SCT005 OVC015 20/19 Q1013 RMK RF00.0/000.0

SPECI YSNF 180902Z AUTO 20007KT 7000 SCT005 BKN011 OVC015 20/19 Q1013 RMK RF00.0/000.0

SPECI YSNF 180925Z AUTO 20008KT 6000 BKN003 BKN008 OVC011 20/19 Q1013 RMK RF00.0/000.0

SPECI YSNF 180930Z AUTO 20007KT 4500 BKN002 BKN006 OVC011 20/19 Q1013 RMK RF00.2/000.2

Arrival at Norfolk Island at 1005 - TAF amended at 0958 - SPECI YSNF 181000Z AUTO 18009KT 4500 OVC002 19/19 Q1013 RMK RF00.2/001.0

Ditching at Norfolk Island at 1026 - SPECI YSNF 181030Z AUTO 16009KT 3000 OVC002 19/18 Q1013 RMK RF00.4/002.4

There was METAR/SPECI reports issued for 0700 METAR, 0730 METAR and an 0739 SPECI and yet the METAR that was passed at 0801 UTC was the 0630 UTC METAR. It is interesting to note that had either the 0730 METAR or 0730 SPECI or (preferably both) had been relayed by Nadi then maybe the Captain and FO would have picked up on the trending weather and then possibly made more inquiries which would have triggered Nadi to relay the 0803 Amended TAF and especially the 0830 SPECI which put the conditions below the landing minima.

Kharon I take your points with the dew point split and the INTER/TEMPO. It would appear that BOM have withdrawn a proper forecasting service for Norfolk Island simply relying on the auto station (for METAR/SPECI). And what is the BOM rule for forecasting PROB FOG?

It is interesting when you look at the TAFs issued over the period of the flight out and back to Norfolk on page 58-59 of the ATSB report you will see the only time a INTER/TEMPO or PROB was forecast was at 0958 UTC, see here:

TAF AMD YSNF 180958Z 1810/1824
26008KT 9999 -SHRA BKN010
FM181500 16012KT 9999 -SHRA BKN010
TEMPO 1810/1824 4000 SHRA BKN005
RMK T 19 18 17 18 Q 1013 1013 1012 1014

Maybe the lax forecasting has something to do with the fact that most aircraft are required to carry an alternate for Norfolk, either way it would appear that there was some critical wx info that was issued but not relayed that could very definitely have helped make an early decision to divert, especially that 0830 SPECI!

The most disturbing thing is that the ATSB missed or chose to ignore these factors in the compiling of their final report, oh that’s right it was outside the ‘scope’ of their investigation…bah humbug!