So in summary, here’s some of what we know
for sure:
1. Neither CASA nor ATSB knows the precise terms of the transmissions actually made by Nadi and Auckland, unless someone from CASA and ATSB listened to the recordings of those transmissions.
2. There are errors in the ‘partial transcript’, or there were errors in the transmissions recorded in the ‘partial transcript’, or both.
3. Neither CASA nor ATSB knows the precise terms of the transmissions actually heard by the crew of NGA, or what the crew interpreted what they heard to mean.
Irrespective of what the precise terms of the transmissions and received interpretations were, it appears (but it is not certain) that:
At around 0757, NGA requested a METAR for Norfolk.
At around 0801, Nadi transmitted a METAR for Norfolk.
At around 0802, NGA requested and Nadi provided the issue time for the METAR.
At around 0802, Nadi transmitted and NGA acknowledge receipt of a report identified as the 0800 SPECI for Norfolk.
At around 0803, Nadi transmitted and NGA acknowledged receipt of an instruction to contact Auckland at DOLSI.
At around 0839, NGA contacted Auckland.
At around 0904, NGA requested the latest weather Norfolk, and were given a report identified as the 0902 SPECI for Norfolk.
NGA was not given the report identified as the 0830 SPECI for Norfolk.
At around 0911, NGA flew beyond the last diversion point to Tontouta (according to the Pel-Air submission).
One of the ATSB’s finding is:
The flight crew did not source the most recent Norfolk Island Airport forecast, or seek and apply other relevant weather and other information at the most relevant stage of the flight to fully inform their decision of whether to continue the flight to the island, or to divert to another destination.
Let’s assume that these words were all received and fully understood by NGA, verbatim, at the noted times (I’m sure they weren’t, but let’s assume for the time being):
0801 Transmitted by Nadi after a request from NGA – “METAR Norfolk at zero six three zero Zulu wind three zero zero, zero niner knots, niner niner niner niner, few six thousand, broken two thousand four hundred, temperature two one dewpoint one niner QNH norfolk one zero one one remarks closed till one niner three zero UTC go ahead.”
0801 Transmitted by Nadi, on initiative from Nadi – “Roger this the latest weather for Norfolk...SPECI... I say again special weather Norfolk at zero eight zero zero Zulu... auto I say again auto, alpha uniform tango oscar, wind two niner zero, zero eight knots, niner niner niner niner, november delta victor, overcast one thousand one hundred, temperature two one, dew point one niner, QNH Norfolk one zero one two, ...remarks... romeo foxtrot zero zero decimal zero oblique zero zero zero decimal zero go ahead.”
0904 Transmitted by Auckland after a request from NGA – “SPECI Norfolk at zero niner zero two zulu, alpha uniform tango oscar, wind two zero zero, zero seven knots, seven zero zero zero, scattered five hundred, broken one thousand one hundred, overcast one thousand five hundred, temperature two zero, dew point one niner, QNH one zero one three, ...remarks... romeo foxtrot zero zero decimal zero oblique zero zero zero decimal zero.”
What more should the crew have done, and when, to “source the most recent Norfolk Island Airport forecast”, or to “seek and apply other relevant weather and other information”?
We know that CASA’s “opinion” is that “good airmanship should have resulted in a diversion”.
For those who agree with CASA’s opinion, at what point, precisely, should the decision to divert have been made by the crew of NGA, on the basis of what information, precisely?