All of the submissions are well worth a read.
The ATSB’s flawed approach to investigations is demonstrated by the selective quoting of the transcript of the HF communications. Note the ‘partial transcript’ in Appendix A of the ATSB report finishes at 0803:24, just after the 0800 SPECI was (according to the transcript) transmitted to NGA (at 0802:32).
The Pel-Air submission is very interesting on this point. It says, under the report finding “
The flight crew did not source the most recent Norfolk Island Airport forecast, or seek and apply other relevant weather and other information at the most relevant stage of the flight to fully inform their decision of whether to continue the flight to the island, or to divert to another destination:
The crew did request actual weather reports (either METARs or SPECIs).
WEATHER PROVIDED BY NADI:
The PIC requested a METAR from Nadi for Norfolk at 0756 and at 0801 was provided with an 0800 SPECI which indicated overcast (OVC) cloud at 1100 feet. [CP Note: this is the SPECI quoted in the ATSB report’s ‘partial transcript’.] This was the first indication to the crew that the weather at Norfolk Island was becoming marginal.
WEATHER PROVIDED BY AUCKLAND:
[CP Note: According to the Pel-Air submission, this all happened after the end of the ‘partial transcript.]
The aircraft transferred to Auckland at 0839 but did not request the latest Norfolk weather until 0904 when they were given the 0902 SPECI which showed broken (BKN) cloud at 1100 feet and OVC cloud at 1500 feet. This finally alerted them to the situation at Norfolk Island. However a much more severe SPECI was issued earlier at 0830 showing a marked deterioration of the weather with cloud BKN at 300 ft and OVC at 900 ft. This was well below the landing minima and if it had been passed to the aircraft on first contact with Auckland would have alerted the crew to the true situation with time enough to divert. At 0839 the aircraft was still around 32 min away from the last diversion point to Tontouta as shown in the timeline in the report. Additionally, if the Nadi controller had passed the 0830 SPECI to the aircraft when it was issued there would have been even more time for the crew to assimilate the changing weather and take appropriate action. As it was the critical 0830 SPECI was never passed to the crew.
While the obtaining of up to date weather information is ultimately the responsibility of the PIC, controllers are in a position to see weather changes as they happen and should always alert the crew to any new reports they see as significant. The report does not address the question as to whether the controllers could or should have passed on the 0830 SPECI to the crew other than to say they were not required to do so by international agreement.
The bolded text is in red in the Pel-Air submission.
So let’s assume the ‘partial transcript’ is accurate and the Pel-Air submission is also accurate in relation to what was transmitted after the period covered by the ‘partial transcript’ ended. Let’s also assume the crew heard and understood everything transmitted.
Based on those assumptions, here’s what was actually transmitted and received, and when, starting from the 0630 METAR:
0801:31 – Nadi: METAR Norfolk at 0630 Zulu wind 300 09 knots 9999, few 6,000 broken 2400 temperature 21 dewpoint 19 QNH norfolk 1011 remarks closed till 1930 UTC go ahead. [Let’s not worry about what was really transmitted, other than to assume the ‘few 6,000’ was transmitted verbatim/]
0802:08 – NGA: Ahhh …copy… just say again the issue time for the METAR.
0802:14 – Nadi: Issue time for the METAR this is the latest 0630 Zulu.
0802:22 – NGA: Victor golf alpha thank you.
0802:26 – Nadi: Victor November golf alpha nadi
0802:29 – NGA: Go ahead nadi victor golf alpha
0802:32 – Nadi: Roger this the latest weather for Norfolk...SPECI... I say again special weather Norfolk at 0800 Zulu... auto I say again auto, alpha uniform tango oscar, wind 290 08 knots, 999 november delta victor, overcast one thousand one hundred , temperature 21, dew point 19, QNH Norfolk 1012...remarks... romeo foxtrot zero zero decimal zero oblique zero zero zero decimal zero go ahead.
0803:21 – NGA: Thank you nadi… much appreciated november golf alpha.
So over the period of less than one and half minutes, the METAR with the mistake, then the 0800 SPECI, is transmitted and received.
Nadi then passes NGA to Auckland and the ‘partial transcript’ runs out at
0803:24.
According to the Pel-Air submission:
0839 - NGA transferred to Auckland. [CP question:
Who said what, to whom, between 0803:24 and 0839??]
0904 - NGA requested the latest weather Norfolk at and were given a ‘0902’ SPECI that said, in part, “broken at one thousand one hundred and overcast one thousand five hundred”.
So here is what the 2 SPECIs said, and NGA received and understood, about cloud (assuming my assumptions about the transcript and Pel-Air’s submission and reception by the crew are correct):
0800 SPECI: Overcast one thousand one hundred. Note also that this SPECI said nil rainfall recorded in the ten minutes prior to the SPECI time and nil rainfall recorded since 0900 local time.
0902 SPECI: broken at one thousand one hundred and overcast one thousand five hundred
On what basis should the PIC have asked for anything more? Should the pilot have said to Auckland: “Thanks for that, is there anything thing else that we should know about the weather at the destination to which you are aware we are proceeding?” Would Auckland have said: “As a matter of fact, there was a 0830 SPECI that said cloud broken at three hundred and overcast at nine hundred. Lucky you asked!”