I don't believe that even Dubya would be silly enough to try that one. At least, I sincerely hope not.
Consider the possible consequences. If the US were to prove beyond doubt that it was willing to nuke first, where would that leave such nuclear nations as may have cause to feel that America was potentially their enemy also? What options would be open to them? Sit and wait for it to happen to them as well?
Maybe the threat of mutual annihilation (spelling?) would be enough to avoid global escalation with the likes of China, though maybe not; and Russia probably doesn't see the US as a genuine enemy anymore.
But what of the wild cards?
I guess my real concern is summed up in this excerpt from an email to a friend on a related subject:
"NK already has nukes. Iraq doesn't. NK is building more of them; Iraq can't
at this point in time.
NK has submarines, and quite a few of them at that. Iraq doesn't, to the
best of my knowledge.
NK has advanced long range missile technology, and quite a bit of it. Iraq
doesn't, really.
NK almost certainly has both ballistic and cruise missiles, certainly
ballistic, nuclear-equipped, on some of its subs right now. These can
certainly threaten the US west coast, possibly the east coast, and who
knows, maybe the Gulf of Mexico coast as well.
The USN and USAF can certainly find and destroy some, many, even most of
these vessels, before their threat can be realised. But they can't
absolutley guarantee to be able to find them all.
If three or four NK subs managed to get past US defences, which is quite
feasible, and they launched one or two nukes each at major US coastal
cities, which is not excessive, and half of those nukes went off, which is
conservative, and even if the size of the nukes were as small as Hiroshima,
what would the effect on the US be?
Medically it would be unable to cope, period. The most likely target states,
all coastal, would include California, Texas, Florida and New York; in other
words, where most of the US population lives. When the really big states are
hit, how much out-of-state assistance is there available to be called upon?
Probably far too little.
Economically, politically, militarily, how could the US respond, and what
state would it be in afterwards?
Assuming that a counterstrike is possible in a post nuclear EMP environment,
NK would no longer exist; that much is a given. But would the US continue to
exist, and as a world superpower?
Is NK silly enough to do this thing? Already backed into a corner as they
are, if pushed any further, the answer is probably yes.
Is the US prepared or even able to countenance the probable consequences of
such a realistically possible scenario? I would say no, and that, in my
opinion, is why they are treading so carefully around NK. Iraq is a
completely different animal; it isn't capable of hitting back, and is
probably sensible enough to not do that even if it were."
I do hope Dubya isn't that silly.