This thread is entitled "MPA announced 2015?". The question mark implies that it is actually a question - to which the short answer is NO! As to the long answer...
A couple of points to consider. First of all, the proposed SDSR in 2015. When exactly is this SDSR going to be held? The next UK general election is on 7th May 2015. So, is the SDSR held before then? If it is, and the current lot don't stay in power, then an incoming Labour government will wish to make its own assessment rather than follow a coalition plan. If an SDSR is delayed until after the election and Labour get in, they aren't obliged to hold one at all, and if they do it will at a time of their own choosing, which might not be until 2016/17. Even if the coalition get back in, I can't see them having an SDSR before the election, so it probably wouldn't be until very late 2015 even in this (unlikely) scenario.
Even if there is an SDSR around about 2015, it doesn't alter the fact that the country will still be broke, and defence isn't a vote winner. We will have pulled our troops back from Afghanistan by then, and I can only see more reductions being required in order to save money, such as cut backs to the Army, the SH, fleet, etc. Extra expenditure on a "new" capability just isn't going to happen.
So take off the rose tinted glasses. While the UK may indeed need some form of fixed wing, land based, maritime patrol aircraft, the reality of the situation is such that it is highly unlikely to be ordered as the result of a 2015 SDSR!
Last edited by Biggus; 19th Nov 2012 at 20:38.