Another consideration for cadet pilots of 2012/2013 is this: with c.£80,000 in hand (from family, personal savings etc.), would the cadet be best investing only in an integrated course and hoping that by 2015 type ratings aren't £25,000 (e.g. the airline pays, showing preference for the integrated candidate), or... spend the £80,000 on a modular course and type rating combined (e.g. the current RYR/EZY setup).
That isn't the "EZY" setup at all! Nor is it the British airways, Monarch, Thomson, Thomas Cook, Qatar, or many others setup either. As for Ryanair, you may get lucky, but they seem to take a significant input of low houred pilots from the same sources as the former group as well.
The problem with this type of transistion for low houred pilots, is that it is a very steep learning curve. Nobody wants failures. The airlines don't, and the candidates obviously don't. This level of flying experience is generally considered far too low to ensure the curve is achievable and produces a strong level of success. Particularly so, when the airline is paying or subsidising the training cost towards the type rating.
Apart from the airline that charges for interviews, and contracts the application / assesment process as part of a profit centre, the others all draw their low hour experience "cadets" from one route, for these fundamental reasons. It may well be that many candidates from other sources would achieve the necessary gradient to success, but across the general demographic, that is simply too costly and time intensive to make it a realistic proposition for these commercial entities.
Type ratings for more experienced pilots represents a much lower risk, as the experience and background provides for a much easier assessment and profile. In other words a more gradual learning curve can take you to the same point at the expense of more time and consequently more experience. The type rating in itself doesn't bypass the steeper learning curve required of these airlines integrated students.
Which do you think would have best job prospects in 2015? I think I know which I'd prefer!
If you are talking about this level of airline opportunity, I don't think there is any doubt at all!
Isn't the real problem something else - why on earth do type ratings cost so much? They're not going away. Must be a market here for someone to offer a cheaper product, so that candidates can afford to have a couple as part of their pilot training.
Because in some cases the type rating is another profit center. In some cases the meter is running and it is the customers dime. However for those airlines that are providing training, the costs vary significantly. Some training is "in-house," particularly where the airline is a TRTO in their own right. Some airlines contract most of their training outside. At the end of the day it is about getting a good quality product into the seat, and earning profit for the airline. The airline wants maximum "bang for the buck." It doesn't want problems, unnecessary cost, delay and failures. "Offering a cheaper product" may well be of interest to the airline puchaser, but for the independent candidate it is really quite difficult to see what advantage it would offer in terms of making them a product the airlines would want to buy. They really aren't looking for low houred pilots with self acquired type ratings. I can't recall a time when the reputable ones ever have, nor can I realisticaly envision a future requirement for same.
A typical jet type rating for a cadet, involves around £10,000 of raw simulator time (assuming the candidates are paired trainees.) Add to that Instructor time, base training, safety pilots, line training, ground courses, expenses etc, and the costs become significant. Many airlines do not charge for these ratings, but apply a bond. Whereby if the candidate leaves within a set timeframe, they agree by contract to repay a proportion of these costs on a sliding scale.