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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 00:25
  #89 (permalink)  
jabird
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Coventry
Age: 44
Posts: 1,943
There is no research behind it other than trying to associate in pairs the airports with min. possible charges and max. possible marketing support on both ends.
I'm sure there is an exact science behind it, based on the very metrics you mention. They have a routes director working out all the permutations. The other key factor is where else the plane is already going that day.

Hence routes from regional airport A to Polish or French city B might work, whereas a longer rotation to the Canaries might not.

If destination D is not provided from airport C, will pax accept D instead, will they still fly with Ryanair from airport F, or will they go to a rival.

They are constantly playing with these figures, and if they get them wrong, the route gets dropped.

I am sure there is also a formula along the lines of yield Q on an existing route is better than a predicted yield of Q * 120%, because our predictions are only accurate +/- 30%, and we don't want to keep routes on a permanent yo-yo, although there are of course cases where that still happens, especially if destination airport G turns round and drops charges by 20%.

Also, a destination to us is origin at the other end, and this might be the source of anything from 5% upto 95% of the flight - and quite a few are an even 50-50 split.
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