The effects of the attack on the WTC and the simultaneous recession in the airline industry have left many airlines - worldwide - fairly weak financially. However, the probable effects of Gulf ll have been factored into the more prudent forecasts by the majors and, more importantly, by their banks. So, while I could see a couple of the weaker airlines going under, or perhaps some further consolidation in the European and US markets, I doubt that Gulf ll on its own would have that great an effect.
Far more worrying, in the UK at least, is the slowdown in consumer spending. As the vast majority of airline travel just now is leisure, any reduction in 'discretionary' (ie unnecessary) spending will directly affect our industry. A 5% loss of trade would, if all else were equal, ensure that nearly all UK airlines made a loss next year. There isn't a great deal of room for manoeuvre on cost control left, and most indicators are that our costs will increase for the first half of the year.
It's going to be a difficult time, with or without a war.
Scroggs
Virgin/Wannabes Moderator
[email protected]