Ryanair probed for social security evasion in Italy-source | Reuters
There is a big difference between legal tax avoidance (*$ style) and evasion, which (
afaik) is a criminal act. Clearly, Ryanair maintain they have done nothing long. Maybe they can take the tax inspectors out to a nice slap up meal in Milan - worked for Vodafone.
I can't see what difference this will have on Italian routes. If (and it is a very big if) criminal charges were brought, Ryanair couldn't just up sticks anyway. I would assume they'd be denied overfly rights for Italy too, and if it came to it, would a European arrest warrant not be put out?
Far more likely scenario is that Ryanair will defend these charges, lap up the publicity as always, and if it looks bad, they will settle out of court.
France is quite a different scenario with just one base, and a decision to move to avert further costs of staying there, not because of any potential legal case (
afaik).
Ryanair seems to have picked on smaller airports or countries in the past, when it knows it can call the shots. I doubt this is the case in Italy, not just because of the bases, but also because of all the other inbound flights. Italy must have more secondary airports than most, alongside the UK and Germany.
We know how much MOL hates APD, but he also knows he isn't in a position to leave the UK in protest, as he has far too much business here already.