FRatSTN
I think that's generally a fair view of the situation.
SEN definitely don't want RYR so that isn't a problem, while the A319/320 and most 737 marques other than the -800 can operate comfortably to the majority of Southern European destinations. That gives some scope for IT charters on the lines of the Germania 737-700 planned for next year, although these types of flights seem to diminish year by year in favour of scheduled operations, e.g. Monarch.
As far as OLT Express Germany is concerned I wouldn't be too concerned one way or the other. In my view they have rather rushed into reinventing themselves and launching numerous new routes with the sole aim of maintaining utilisation on the seven Contact Air F100s that have just joined the fleet. Too little notice at the wrong season of the year, coupled with a German-only website is hardly conducive to a successful launch of a UK route.
There is no chance of the runway ever being further extended so SEN will have to rely upon types similar to the above and newer developments such as the Bombardier C-Series for Lo-Co/IT business. Added to that will be other European regional operators on mainly niche, thinner routes and no doubt some ad hoc charter traffic. If all of that doesn't produce the 2 mppa maximum I should be very surprised. Don't forget we're not talking about another STN or LTN here so the traffic levels can remain fairly modest and still achieve that target.
Obviously the size of the initial easyJet route network took everyone by surprise and has resulted in the new terminal being too small already at peak times, so don't expect too much more expansion of traffic until 2014 when the terminal extension (more than doubling it in size) is operational. There is no way that SEN is going to risk losing its USP of being a rapid transit, user-friendly, simple to use airport in the interim.