Crystal Ball for Rent
I wouldn't exactly call it 'taking a punt' but let's face it, with only 2 large manufacturers out there and a handful of smaller ones, operators aren't exactly spoiled for choice when it comes to who they purchase from. The manufacturers make what they think will be needed in a decade, based on today's technology and the operators buy it because it is better than what they had before...or at least they hope it will. A380 anyone? We all know Airbus had to give 2 away plus a free 319 Elite to EK just to keep them from scuttling the image of EAD's latest baby.
And yes, they are in the plane making and plane selling business and that is all I'm afraid. Geopolitical forces and economic ebbs and flows have huge impacts on the aviation industry and its ability to grow. None of the OEM execs or so-called top men in the airlines have any clue how these forces are going to interplay even 5yrs from now. How many of these guys are even in their chairs 10yrs after their clairvoyant predictions let alone after 25. There are a some exceptions of course, O'Leary, Fernandez, Clarke etc but as I said, they are the exception rather than the rule.
The truth is, the future of this business is a moving target. The treehuggers are trying to get their way with their ETS, aviation is a soft target for government taxes (UK is case in point), an oil shock is only a heartbeat away and looming economic crises in many countries who were prior-to believed to be immune (France is just one example).
So, let Airbus and Boeing sell the snake oil, let the airline chiefs get fat from free lunches at posh restaurants meanwhile the rest of us will keep an open mind and take it as it comes. Plan for the worst, hope for the best but don't be surprised when the predictions made 25yrs ago fall short.
Have a great day.
D.O.G
Last edited by desertopsguy; 3rd Oct 2012 at 12:01.