Great catch there TWE. Will a larger amount of Australian government bonds be offered as a result? What would happen to yields etc?
Economic Effects Of QE3 Will Soon Enter The Markets
September 20, 2012, at 6:24 pm
My Dear Extended Family,
Everyone has an opinion of QE3. Almost all are wrong.
What has taken place here in its size, and in an almost simultaneous international unified approach has no precedent in economic history.
QE1 and QE2 were not failures. Do you have any idea what the world would have looked like if every major bank in the Western financial world broke?
It is easy to be a naysayer and say let the banks go broke, but you have no idea how hard it would have hit you and yours and maybe gold and silver. This is not to say that Debt Monetization, which QE represents, is correct, but it was the only tool available to central banks that would create infinite cash for the Fed and Treasury to use in a totally discretionary manner. Governments, because of the size of their debt, were incapable of applying the better tool for reviving economic activity, which is fiscal stimulation. One thing for certain is the infrastructure of the USA is collapsing in front of your eyes. Dar es Salaam airport looks better on approach than JFK. Dubai is beyond description. Roads from the Beijing airport are brand new. The USA infrastructure is disgraceful for a major power. New York City roads look like "Mad Max and the Day After." However when you are the major debtor nation fiscal stimulation is simply not possible. It will not happen because it cannot happen.
Please stop listening to those that tell you QE will have no effect. They are "Ignorant to Infinity." QE3 is going to have an unprecedented effect, as it is now simultaneous and global in scope.
Please make note of all the governments that screamed at the Fed for the use of QE1 and QE2 that are now applying QE to infinity.
There will be no QE4 because QE3 is going to go on continually with a month or two off now and then. Please recognize that it is hard for markets to discount what they do not believe in and therefore by definition do not anticipate.
Know within 90 days the economic effects of QE3 will be entering markets for money and therefore the markets for gold, silver, and most certainly the dollar.
Gold is going to at least $3500. Silver will certainly perform well also. The real support for the US dollar is .7200 on the USDX and it will trade there. The euro will trade at $1.35 and $1.40.
Ron McEwen of MUX fame said it correctly: “Patience is bitter; but the fruit is sweet!”
Respectfully,
Jim
and this..
QE3 To Infinity–The Final End Game
September 21, 2012, at 2:30 pm
My Dear Extended Family,
The final end game of QE3 to infinity, with a month or two off from time to time, will be a product of the long term viability of the Federal Reserve Balance sheet and the impact on the dollar there from.
Let’s review what has transpired and begin to look at what will happen:
1. OTC derivative manufacturers and distributors sold fraudulent paper to almost every entity as clients of the Western world financial system. Inherently the OTC derivatives manufacturers and distributors had part of the transaction on their books. No problem as long as the entire scam was a "Daisy Chain," a connected set of transactions that has the appearance of risk but when all netted out equals almost zero.
2. Until Lehman was flushed, and flushed it was, most all OTC derivatives could have been netted to zero in a derivative resurrection bank. Losers would have rejoiced and winners would have declared war. However when Lehman was forced into bankruptcy it broke the "Daisy Chain" (a chain of near risk-less transactions when netted) of the OTC derivatives scam. At this point winners had won huge and loser had lost huge and there was no longer a means of repair to the quadrillion dollar scam. The problem has no practical solution other than transferring all losing paper to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve where then it was anticipated no non-government "mark to market" audit would ever occur. It was the perfect hole to stick the junk into.
3. The size of the OTC derivative market stood at one quadrillion one hundred and forty four trillion as reported by the Bank of International Settlement, the counter internationally.
4. The Bank of international Settlements, seeing this outrageous number, changed their computer method of valuation to maturity assuming no failures and reduced the size of OTC derivatives of all kinds to a more acceptable but still huge number of $700 trillion notional value.
5. In the first and second round of QE the Federal reserve purchased OTC derivatives including the variety called securitized mortgage debt to remove them from the balance sheets of the Western world financial system, thereby improving the Western world’s financial institutions balance sheet and preventing an international industry wide bankruptcy. That means the Federal Reserve has impaired its balance sheet in order to repair some of the balance sheet integrity of the Western world financial system. The amount they have purchased is significant, but not compared to total outstanding above more than one quadrillion dollars.
6. The reason for QE to infinity, QE3, is the failure of business activity in the Western world to pick up with early huge monetary stimulation so as to repair the balance sheet of the Western financial world financial system. The unseen crisis is the hidden weakness of the Western world financial system thanks to FASB (The gatekeepers of world accounting) which allows financial institutions internationally to hide their losses by valuing their paper at whatever the bank wants it to be with no reference to seek a market value, primarily because there is none to seek.
7. The crisis not seen by Fed observers is the true balance sheet condition of the loses on the trillions of dollar of worth-less paper fraudulent paper because numbers are given but no independent mark to market audit has been or is likely performed.
8. As QE3 to infinity moves ahead, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve continues to acquire worthless paper in exchange for dollars. Junk moved onto the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve as the common share of the USA, the US dollar, continues to expand exponentially.
9. The end game problem is an extended recessionary business conditions going into 2015 to 2017 wherein the supply of dollars continually expands, the US Federal Deficit grows, US state deficit spending continues to grow and the quality of the Federal Reserve balance sheet proceeds to deteriorate further.
Therefore the end game is the perception of the weakness of the lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve’s Balance sheet, as it impacts confidence the US dollar and US interest rates.
Now you know what brings about the end game.
In the future I will do small simple articles dealing with the impact on markets of a to be Bankrupt Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve. The end game could come sooner, but only if there was an independent "mark to market" audit of the Federal Reserve inventory of worthless paper which remains unlikely no matter who wins the election in November.
Those of you invested in gold and silver vehicles of all kinds (with the exception of ETFs and futures) rest well this weekend. $3500 will easily be a place gold trades. The Canadian dollar and blasphemy to the euro snobs, the Swiss franc, remain go to vehicles for cash positions. Yes cash because you to not have to pay to own them as you do with a sovereign paper with negative interest.
Your watchman,
Jim
With respect to Canada, does this, by transference, imply hot money will flow into Australia as well? Australian bonds, property? Will Steve Keen be proven wrong and the private debt bubble continue to inflate as a result?