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Old 20th Sep 2012, 17:35
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davidjohnson6
 
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UK Airport Provisional Statistics: 2012 - 08 | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA

Aug 2011 saw 16,213 passengers, while Aug 2012 saw 13,772 passengers, a loss of 2,441 passengers or -15.1%
In August 2011, Turkish holiday firm Holidays4U had 1,356 passengers, while the Eastern Airways route to Southampton had 477 passengers. Peter Nears is correct to say these are the main causes of the decline
However, Turkey and Southampton combined led to 11,872 passengers in 2011 - it is essential (but difficult) to find replacement routes and regain these passengers, rather than just accepting the loss.

Jersey
June 2012 - 604, June 2011 - 397, change = +52.1%
July 2012 - 400, July 2011 - 526, change = -24.0%
August 2012 - 393, August 2011 - 440, change = -10.6%
Note - July 2011 and June 2012 each had 5 Saturdays

From Jun 2012-Aug 2012, there were 13 Saturdays
Allowing for a flight every Saturday in the summer, this means each flight had an average of (604 + 400 + 393) / (2 * 13) = 53.7 passengers
Assuming FlyBE use a Dash-8 Q400 on the route with 78 seats, this means a load factor of 68.8 %

I do not understand how one can claim the seats were 90% sold, unless there's some kind of load restriction in place. Durham and Jersey both seem to have a more than ample runway for a Dash-8 for a 1h30m flight

Palma
May 2012 - 1207, May 2011 - 1500, change = -19.5%
June 2012 - 1843, June 2011 - 2305, change = -20.0%
July 2012 - 1477, July 2011 - 1768, change = -16.5%
Aug 2012 - 1446, Aug 2011 - 1787, change = -19.1%

I do not see how one can claim Palma has seen an increase in traffic during summer 2012, unless it is to say that more people go to Palma in July / August compared to May and you ignore seasonality

Amsterdam
March 2012 - 8438, March 2011 - 9218, change = -8.5%
April 2012 - 8736, April 2011 - 9217, change = -5.2%
May 2012 - 8406, May 2011 - 9062, change = -7.2%
June 2012 - 8819, June 2011 - 8849, change = -0.3%
July 2012 - 9050, July 2011 - 9092, change = -0.5%
August 2012 - 8938, August 2011 - 9039, change = -1.1 %
Note - April 2012 had an additional 93 charter passengers which I am ignoring

I do not see how one could claim the Amsterdam route has seen an increase in summer 2012 compared to the previous year. It is possible that in Aug 2012, KLM operated fewer flights to MME compared to Aug 2011, meaning that the load factor has increased despite passenger numbers being down
It is very likely that the KLM marketing campaign at MME in May 2012 slowed the decline in passengers, but KLM passengers numbers at MME are still down compared to the previous year.
I can see how one could claim that an increase from 8,406 in May 2012 to 8,938 in Aug 2012 is an increase in absolute numbers, but this ignores any kind of annual seasonality.

Last edited by davidjohnson6; 20th Sep 2012 at 20:39.
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