IB dude, i have to disagree with you on that.. We'v been short for a few years now. We'v been short when iraq/iran was full on, we were short during the closure (having 1 pilot on stby a day, does not warrant an excess of pilots, thats from the horse's mouth),and we are short now.
A few people pissed off Yonder when the 767 was retired(2008), alot more buggered off for a better life style a bit to the east of bah, a few retired (they did'nt age overnight).. So unforseen circumstance me hairy ar$&.
The training department is running full time trying to cope(hats off to them), but folk are leavin faster than bums are being placed on seats.
Ps.. Gf has lived a cycle of shortage as far back as the 90s.. How unforseen can that be, one would be as blind as a bat on a railway track not to forsee that.