Guys, it's over.
Qantas as an independent Australian entity is gone.
When I penned my post above, I hadn't read about Clarke and Joyces "Bonding session" in May. Bushwalking and fireside chats indeed. It just reinforces my own opinion.
Folks, I've been to these sort of sessions at very expensive country retreats, drinking fine wines with multiple Directors of merging companies long past midnight. Joyce was a supplicant - "Will you still respect me in the morning?". The answer is always no.
Emirates will build a detailed picture of the Qantas business. They will offer to take as much operational control as Joyce feels free to give them.
Once they have a clear picture, there will be a heart to heart talk at chairman level, Joyce will be excluded. Emirates will make a value proposition to the Qantas Board about their future as part of Emirates and explain the painful truth to Qantas about their demise were they to reject Emirates advances.
Folks, i've been through this crap from the "Flowers and chocolates" phase, as my Lawyer calls it, through to the "Divorce court" phase. Joyce obviously hasn't. Ask any successful professional services firm about how we do this. Singo will have done it multiple times absorbing advertising rivals. Every successful management consultant has been through this on both sides of the table at least once.
To put that another way: "The partnership of XXX and YYY will lead to new customer experiences, blah blah blah", "Leveraging the synergies between XXX and YYY", with XXX strength in ZZZ markets and YYY strength in WWW markets we will offer our customers a seamless experience, etc. etc."
The reaiity, to paraphrase my former boss, is that Qantas and Emirates will collaborate tooth and claw, and Emirates will win.
Don't bother to blather on about how Qantas has these slots to gift to Emirates and all that technical airline stuff. Emirates will take what it wants as it absorbs Qantas. When I was young I thought the same as you do right now - "but surely Emirates will need me and my unique Australian experience" the answer is sadly No. They don't need you and they don't want you - you will "pollute the Emirates culture".
You are finished.
Last edited by Sunfish; 9th Sep 2012 at 12:54.