Squawk 7600,
If it pans out the way you describe then this is the start of the end for QF International and I'll happily eat my hat. The reason I don't think this will happen though is because it is so obviously going to destroy the International arm if they start shrinking it. Surely Hickey would step down now rather than over-see that happen?
The obvious way forward from here is to create a route structure that benefits both airlines, with QF doing most of the shuffling around in order to suit EK.
New destinations with the same number of international departures for QF as there is now and growing that over the next 5 years.
Hopefully that happens.
Cheers
Sauce with that hat Sir?
Framer, with all due respect I'm not sure where you've been for the last few years, but this is not the "start" of anything. This has been going on for some time, with aircraft slowly but surely being ferried to the US for disposal. The only recent acquisitions were the A380, and the total number that Qantas ordered has been "delayed" (read cancelled). I agree, the correct strategy is to expand in to Asia as a premium product, but it has been made quite clear that will not happen, and Qantas will not spend one cent on the International division "... until it begins returning a profit" - Alan Joyce. I'm not sure what aircraft you believe they are going to run up to Asia! Yes it WILL be the death of Qantas International, that is why you hear so many people up in arms over it. The slated A380 running through DBX is merely a temporary measure to have the deal approved, as without that the ACCC would never approve it. As I mentioned, there is no way on God's earth that the number of QF paper pushers in the various Towers of Power can be supported, even with a dozen A380s, and it was why the international airline was restructured to be separate from the domestic airline. If anyone thinks it was done to "improve efficiency" as spruiked by management, then I have a ski lodge in Abu Dhabi you may be interested in buying. I'll give you a good price. Honest, trust me!
As for out East, there is no statutory requirement for Qantas to fly anywhere. They will just pull the plug, say it was inevitable "because of the greedy unions", the management team will receive their golden parachutes and wander off to wherever morons go when they're not destroying companies.
I agree, Jetstar International's days are numbered. It's always been a disaster. As far as most of Asia is concerned it's not required anyway, as the grand plan is to feed from hub to hub (SIN, HKG, NRT, etc). Despite the fact that all of these "ventures" have been a complete an utter waste of money, Joyce remains convinced it's the way to go. Maybe, just MAYBE he will finally open his eyes and see that J* fills a niche in the market, and is not the market itself, but I wouldn't count on it. The muppet will need to be pushed I'd expect before any changes are seen to that strategy. Unlike the restrictions placed on QF, J* has absolutely no restrictions on where its principle place of business is located. I expect the 787s to be placed with Jetstar in Asia (probably SIN) and fly back to Aus with the cheapest foreign based crews who have shafted each other to lower the bar further on pay and conditions. J* domestic will contract slightly, but will be there for the foreseeable future. It fills a niche and prevents other carriers entering the market. If you're an FO there I trust you like the right seat, as you're not going anywhere else fast. With the MOU argument raging all I can say is that a few people are going to be eating humble pie, and I'll just leave it at that.
One caveat to all the above is that it relies on the existing management "team" remaining. As much as I think it's fair to be nervous if you're a QF or J* pilot, I'd suggest that's nothing compared to all levels of management. If you're in middle management you're gone already, last person out don't forget to turn out the lights. BUT upper management has increasingly been seen as completely incompetent. There would be a few nervous CVs being updated there I'd suggest!
Personally I'm just hoping for QF International's sake that there's a sudden change of strategy wrt the 787. They really should be going to QF International, to service point-to-point city pairs as a premium product (and leave the backpackers with J* SIN/HKG/etc to go through their hubs). But I haven't seen even the slightest hint so far that such a logical strategy is being considered; management is too busy with their "we know better" plans
