I completely agree about there being a certain amount of luck involved with the choices you make. I also agree that, during my 5 years commercial flying, you can't trust the guy sitting next to you not to bury you to get where he's going.
However, you have made my point for me, companies don't give a sh1t about experience, if it's not in the type they operate. How many more accidents do we need to witness before military flying training is treated as a commodity? I'm not saying military pilots are better than civilians but I don't know one UK military pilot who wouldn't have dealt correctly with the Air France 447 crash for example.