Easy Street
If the recent Flight International article that I read on the global requirement for 450,000 aircrew over the next 20 years is even 10% true, BA and Virgin will be merely small players in the scrabble to get cost effective, experienced aircrew.
Additionally if there is no future PAS (or there is absolutely no incentive to join its future version post FAFPs and/or career progression is reducing) then why hang around? Get H M Queen to fund your flying training, tick the box for school boy/school girl dream of becoming a military pilot, and then move on as soon as possible to prep for a career in aviation that is (financially) incentivised with a long term future (not being kicked out at 55 and having to wait another 10-15 years to collect your pension).
Switch Monkey and others
I would suggest that the only thing to be fair to Air Command and Air Manning about is that for the majority of them, like me, are within their 10 years so when it comes down to it within a couple of years they will have moved on, and within the relatively short period of 10 years they will have the pension that they expected, at the time that they expected to be.
I cannot find one single reason for the 'middle management' to even contemplate career continuance or extending their commitment-if I am wrong, please correct me, but what is the point?
However, maybe I am doing Air Manning a disservice (this is a rumour network after all), and maybe CAS and the Air Staff/MoD have all formally written to HMT making it 100% clear that there is a very strong likely hood that within the relatively near future there will not be a aircrew shortage, but there will be an
experienced aircrew shortage.
As long as there is an audit trail that highlights that Air Command has had the moral courage to inform the MoD and HMT of the projected situation then, I agree Air Manning has done everything it can in the current political climate. It will be these formal letters from Air Command that will in future highlight the flawed policies in order for quick and short term savings that future Defence Select Committees and NAO reports will use as evidence.
I do agree Yozzer and if HMG really does believe that post Afghan there will be a peace dividends that will off set the cost to the nation in ensuring a Suitably Qualified and Experienced Navy, Army and Air Force then so be it. The current policy will ensure that the costly element of Defence (pay and pensions) is reduced dramatically as the older, more experienced (but also potentially more costly) Service Personnel all leave in the 2015-2020 time frame.
Maybe no future political appetite for an Afghan equivalent, or even an expeditionary, peace keeping, or non combatant evacuation operation, but as G4S conviently reminded the British public, remove the experience built up over many years and lets see what capability (national standby or international contingency) the military will be able to deliver.
Back to Mark Twain and history repeating itself and funny old thing arent we now in a similar situation to the early 90s and right after HMG announced peace dividends after the fall of the Warsaw Pact - and lets look where those political peace dividends and conflicts 'without a shot being fired' got us, and haven't even mentioned potential (and hopefully hypothetical) future Hurricanes, Dirty Bombs, Water and Food Security that of course will not require military experience.
If everyone is aware of what they are doing, from the relevant Sqn Ldr level upwards in Air Command to senior positions in HMG/HMT, and the risks have been balanced, then fine - PAS can go, we'll run with a less experienced Air Force, accept the potential increase in accidents/incidents, accept that we might not be able to (successfully) do more with less. Is it the young whipper snappers that have historically allowed us to do pretty significant activities at home and abroad, safely and effectively,concurrently with other operations and tasks, while resources are reduced, or is it the more experienced personnel that have seen it and done it before and make the balanced and realistic judgement call to get the job done successfully and safely (so far
)
I am nervous though, and I will be gone in the timeframe we are talking about, but I am nervous as to what and who will be left.