Uh oh......
I see trouble ahead.
No one (in Air Manning) is listening.
No one is learning from the lessons identified in the past (shortage of aircrew, FRIs and original requirement for PAS).
Of course Service Personnel are not going to sign on to PAS if they have no idea if it will (a) be there post the introduction of FAFPS (2015-17) (b) what the Terms Of Service will be.
If there is any doubt in Air Command as to what the shop floor is thinking, it is very simple (just look at the other threads on CAA accreditation etc).
People are doing their licences in droves - some overtly, many in silence unbeknown to their crew room mates or chain of command (they are still playing along with the charade as they pretend to be on a full career). It is well known that career prospects (especially for the rotary mates) is limited as the RAF rotary wing fleet reduce and the Army take over from within JHC.
If PA goes (or if there is no financial incentive to pursue the FAFPs version) and the chances of promotion are also reducing thanks to SDSR and the redundancy Tranches, then from where I sit in about 6-12 months a significant amount of experience will be gone (lost?).
We will always have our career thrusters, those that have it in their genetic DNA to have ambition and career advancement. But where will the safety and operational capability be when those young thrusters take over young Squadrons when all of the experience has pressed the JPA button. As indicated in a separate thread, of course the RAF will survive and continue, but it will look very different to what it does now....all that hard fought Iraq and Afghan experience potentially gone in a few years.
And this is now - double dip recession and all that. What about when we come out of recession, even if the 450,000 aircrew required for the airline industry over the next 20 years (*1) is way off mark and it is only say 45,000, then where will the young Command orientated career 'go getters' be then without the familiar faces of experience in the crew room to assist?
As Mark Twain said, 'History doesn't repeat itself, it just rhymes'.........
Defence Transformation and Future Force 2020 will start with aircrew FRIs, that is what my crystal ball is saying based upon what upon the rumours I am hearing.
Let's hope the rumours are not right and we can still pull through the right level of experience and talent to PA (and not those that are just too lazy to do licences or would not survive in civilian life).
(*1) = Recent Flight International article on future airline recruitment.
Last edited by MaroonMan4; 19th Aug 2012 at 13:09.