In the August 2012 issue of Wired magazine, author Ben Paynter penned an article named, "The Fire Next Time". "The Fire Next Time"s discusses the paradox of the "close call".
I'll summarize since I only have a print issue.
A "near miss", probability wise, is not a success. They are indicators of failure. If a flaw is systemic, it requires only a small twist of fate for the next incident to result in disaster. "Rather than celebrate then ignoring close calls, we should be learning from them and doing our best to prevent their recurrence." ......"most accident investigations work backward to determine the cause. A more effective way to curtail disasters is to get better at spotting the near miss"
Author Paynters article is based on NASA research (in cooperation with MITRE Corp and the FAA).
In context of AF447, and considering the continued emphasis of some board participants on previously successful near misses (thirty something UAS incidents caused by pitot ice), I suggest that we begin to view those previous A330 UAS incidents as omens. Omens that the system failed to heed.