Back of the envelope calculation
From Aug 2011 to July 2012, MME-AMS had 99,850 passengers and NCL-AMS had 273,054 passengers, suggesting MME has a 26.8% market share of the NE England - Amsterdam route.
Assuming KLM operate a 20x weekly F70 year round except Xmas, that equates to 166,400 seat capacity on MME-AMS. 99,850 passengers gives a 60.0% load factor for the last 12 months.
Recall that Easyjet will open a NCL-AMS route 5x weekly in 4 months time, supplying approx 6,800 seats per month on the route
If Easyjet attain a 75% load factor over a 12 month period on a 5x weekly NCL-AMS A319 route, they will capture about 60,000 passengers per year.
If we assume 50% of those who will choose Easyjet to AMS are currently flying on KLM from NE England then 13.4% (i.e. 0.5 x 26.8% x 60,000) of these passengers or 8,040 people would switch from the MME-AMS route. If KLM's current capacity to NE England is maintained, it implies KLM's MME-AMS will have 99,850 - 8,040 = 91,810 passengers per year, or a load factor of 55.2%.
Can KLM's MME-AMS route survive with its current capacity against Easyjet's NCL-AMS route ?
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 14th Aug 2012 at 17:31.