Arnold E get hold of a book by Bjorn Lomborg called The Skeptical Environmentalist.
Now Lomborg is a gay greenie - not my usual reading material - but he is also a statistician and a man anchored firmly in reality.
It's 4 odd years since I read the book but IIRC the figures for KNOWN reserves were 3000+ years. That figure was based on 1990s prices, which were around $20/bbl, and late 90s usage rates.
Much is made by Peak Oilers that at various times only '30 years' worth of oil (proven reserves) are left!
Why would an oil company waste money looking for more oil when they have 30 years worth stashed away?
How much oil makes it from the 'known' to 'proven' columns in an oil companies ledger depends on the price. At $90/bbl there is a ****LOAD more oil that is profitably extractable than there is at $20/bbl.
Vast amounts of oil has been found since Lomborg wrote his book...but the peak oilers, like the moon landing conspiracy nuts, ignore inconvenient facts.
The facts are that when oil was $20, and that wasn't that long ago, oil companies stopped exploring because it's fcking expensive to go drilling holes all over the place. As oil prices have increased and technology has improved they have gone out drilling and found LOTS of oil. In the next decade the USA will, again, be producing more oil and natural gas than the Saudis, or anyone else for that matter - despite idiot Obama's best efforts.
Oil prices will plummet.
The Saudis, Russians, Iranians et al NEED $90/bbl to fund their various activities both legitimate and illegitimate - $40/bbl will solve a LOT of western concerns with respect to terrorism and Islamism. Even the current price of oil is artificially high - speculators are still in there bidding up the price like they are all through the stock exchanges of the world - and will be until interest rates rise to realistic levels and crush them. Bernanke et al are as responsible for the current oil price as anyone.
But don't believe me - educate yourself - but don't read anything full of apocalyptic language and no references. Like a lot of the horse**** on this thread...and the horse**** I referred to in my last post in particular.
Peak oil is a Malthusian wet dream - its horsehit - and everything that 'logically' flows from horse**** - that entire article - is also horse****.
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 13th Aug 2012 at 13:47.