I would surmise that at the AoA's we are looking at here one could 'forget' any form of 'classic' lift considerations and we are really looking at the moments generated by a 'flat plate' (the tailplane) plus any added force generated by a lowered elevator which would effectively increase the flat plate area. What is unknown at these attitudes is the nose-up pitching moment generated by the wing/body combo (and I suspect we will never know) but I would expect the overall pitching moment of the a/c to be nose down, so we are left only with the thrust couple to spoil the results, and, of course, any applied 'up' elevator reducing the flat plate area - and I think the FDR shows that to be so.