flystrathclyde,
I also generally agree with your comments, however I think we are dancing around some fundamental truths here, which need to be addressed.
I have yet to read a contract that contains any "guarantees" of future success or airline employment. Obviously this is because it cannot conceivably be within the gift of any FTO to make such promises. As your comment in brackets rightly makes clear "in their eyes" is because those "promises" are simply not there for anybody else to read.
I would find myself in broadly general agreement if the question being asked on these forums so often was, "how do I obtain a licence that lets me progress to becoming a flying instructor, or a commercial general aviation pilot?" However it isn't. It is usually "how do I become an airline pilot with 250 hours and a CPL/IR?"
15 years ago you didn't need to hold a commercial licence (usually) to be a remunerated flying instructor in the UK. You obtained the low number of qualifying hours with your PPL and subsequent course, and then having obtained a position, used the job to build up the hours needed to progress up the ladder to a CPL/IR at 700+ hours. Even then, airlines were rarely scouring the length and breadth of the land looking for such people. It was often a slow progression through air taxi, general aviation, further instructing, and third/second level airline jobs towards the prime real estate.
In the USA and most of the rest of the world, it was different. The CPL equivalent was an "aerial work licence" aquired with a low (250) number of hours, which was required for all forms of basic aerial work and flight instruction. Airline flying opportunities usually required an ATPL equivalent (ATR) the clue being in the name I suppose. It also required a similar number of hours as in the Uk. To that latter end there was a broad convergence of expectation and opportunity.
Around a decade and a half ago, the advent of European "harmonisation" and particularly the JAA, meant the Uk was brought into line with regards to the licencing requirements in most of the other ICAO signatory nations. The obvious major change (as it relates to this discussion) being that remunerated flight instruction was no longer possible on a PPL. The hour requirements for a CPL were signifiicantly reduced (for non-approved courses) from 700+ hours to only 250 hours. In both essence and fact, the CPL became the new "aerial work" licence.
Unfortunetaly (or not depending on your point of view,) this all happened around the same time as a a credit fuelled economic apogee, and significantly the growth of new lo-cost airline carriers in that same market. It is hard to forget the more flamboyent (and still so today) CEO's boasting to the media how they didn't need two pilots, and the travelling public was being forced into yet more unnecessary cost as a result. Unscrew that right hand cockpit seat and throw it in the skip! They were told, no they couldn't do that. Next, the stewardess can sit there when necessary, so we still don't need the co-pilot. wrong again! Then came, we can sell the seat to anybody prepared to sit there provided they have the most basic of licence and experience. Well, the response they got was, yes in theory you can. They did a bit of that, and so the idea was born that this was the new super cheap, career lite equal opportunity playing field.
In reality this wasn't an idea that spread. However many aspects of what it embodied where picked up throughout the industry. Many of these aspects (most significantly the cost savings) have helped evolve the reality of the employment market as it has progressed over that decade and a half, and how it stands today.
Most airlines in the marketplace today that recruit at this level (200 hours,) do so from affiliated and recognised FTO's providing an integrated course of training towards such placements. Rarely (if ever) do they employ at this level outside of such programmes.
For other recruitment it has become a very constricted market. Experienced pilots (however you want to define experience, but I would throw out a figure of 2000 hours+ including at least 500 hours of turbine time,) find it hard to progess or move across companies, in part because of the "cadet programmes." Were it not for some of the strong demand in specific Asian and middle eastern markets, that constriction would be even more pronounced.
These changes (evolution) have fuelled a lot of very unrealistic expectations. They are expectations that have kept a lot of FTO's afloat through very difficult economic times. A lot of marketing should come with more than a pinch of salt and some very serious heath warnings. This is why I advise people to research very carefully and as fully as they can. What they think they may be buying into, very often isn't.
The question, can I become an airline pilot with a CPL/IR and 200 hours? is truthfully answered by saying....... Yes, but the opportunities to do so are usually very restricted and very expensive. The same answer held true 30 years ago, and then it was just as possible.
These days, it is in a lot of peoples interests to muddy the waters so that people can convince themselves (with significant encouragement) that all you need is 250 hours and a CPL/IR and the airline world is your oyster. It never was and it isn't today.
Be realistic in your goals, Research the market properly and honestly. Know what you are buying. Know that there are simply never any guarantees.