@jcj:
I see incredibly smart people make silly mistakes at least twice a week. A bad day at the office is not something from which you can derive conclusions about intelligence and aptitude in general.
Again .. indeed .. I agree .. but ..
How are you making (and other) your conclusion about intelligence and aptitude in general ?
The pilots who wet their shirts in the Hudson may receive a gold medal (cause luck ?)
AF447 pilots will do not even receive a bronze medal posthumously (cause bad luck ?)
Why?
Because people will found that those of the Hudson were competent and those of the Atlantic were not
And this was derived from just 1 day in the office (a good day for one crew and a bad day for the other)
To put in view of all in the "offices" :
Amundsen:
Victory awaits him,who as everythings in order.
Luck we call it.
Defeats is definitely due for him,who has neglected to take the necessary precautions.
Bad luck we call it.