You'd think a smart pilot would go for some flat land and a
few fences versus the water.
Not many large aircraft would survive landing on any land surface that was not capable of supporting its weight. The landing gear would very quickly collapse and fuel tanks pierced causing large fires etc. An off airport landing in these sorts of aircraft is much better attempted on calm waters where the aircraft should remain intact and the risk of fire very low.
The Hudson river episode is a good example and also JAL proved it years ago in 1968 when they unintentionally, successfully ditched a DC-8 in San Francisco bay 2nm short of the runway. The DC-8 was lifted onto a barge, repaired and flew for a further 14 years after the event, although JAL changed the aircrafts name.
* It flew for a further 14 years with JAL, actually continued to fly until nearly 2001 at which point it was scrapped.