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Old 19th Jul 2012, 21:56
  #18 (permalink)  
virginexcess
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
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The real question here is "are there statistically more crashes since advent of automation, or less?". I'm tipping that there are less. For every accident caused by lack of basic flying skills, there are probably 10 prevented by automation and improved warning systems.

Overall, I'm betting that automation has resulted in a net increase in safety.

The next phase of the evolution is to try and maintain automation proficiency alongside basic flying skill currency, all within the constraints placed on training resources. Not easy. Given the relative importance, automation proficiency will be the priority.

Now let's take what we know about automation, the quantum of training that a young airline pilot gets these days, and the perceived status of a pilot job, then apply that to the forecast requirement for pilots over the next 20 years.

It's pretty clear that we are going to see the trend continue toward a more regulated use of automation. It is the only way that the airlines are going to be able to put enough bums in seats to fly the aircraft on order.

Will there be crashes as a result; you bet, but there will be a lot less than if you allowed these low hour pilots to hand fly jet aircraft around.

I can say this from a position of being a GA pilot, a military pilot and an airline pilot. Once upon a time i could hand fly with the best of them. Now days I am struggling to do a basic maneuver. I still do them from time to time, but only when well briefed with weather and traffic conditions permitting.

As far as being able to grab the jet from the autopilot in IMC when everything is going pear shaped? I don't think so.
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