All companies that do fail usually do so for one very simple reason......They run out of cash!
The fundamental misunderstanding people often make, is that Monarch is a private company and not a PLC. It sits within a fairly complex and not particularly transparent portfolio of other companies that are also owned by the same families. Within these companies there is a significant degree of symbiosis as well as a degree of independence. To that extent there is also a high degree of risk hedging. In lay terms they keep their "egg" portfolio in a number of baskets.
The largest two "lo-co's" keep all their eggs in one basket. The model is simple, and in commerce it is a well established one. "pile 'em high and sell 'em cheap!" They have a low cost base by contract leasing almost everything, from the aircraft to the pot plant in the Managing Directors office." There is precious little risk hedging, but that is offset by aggresive marketing and volume sales to achieve both growth and that all important cash flow. With the latter in mind they are also cash businesses. Almost all of their point of sale business is cash on purchase with most delivery at a later date. That cash generation tool is a critically important part of the model.
Historically if you at look at the evolution of airline models within similar markets, the real vulnerability is in being "runner up," in second place. The demise of the biggest competitor in your backyard eventually becomes the easiest if not the only road to expansion.
Monarch hasn't abandoned its previous model. It has however recognised the realities of the evolution of the markets it operates in, as well as the other players (big and small) within those markets. Its strengths lie in the versatility to adapt to those markets, which is what you are seeing now.
As a private company, and certainly as this private company, it is not dependent on nervous banks to call the shots. The few shareholders this company has, have drawn income from a succesful business for 95% of its existence. For the remaining 5% they have had to reverse that flow of monies. Whilst I am not privy to how they strategize the business, given the portfolio of companies that offset short term losses in one, it doesn't appear to be something they want to cut loose anytime soon.
Notwithstanding the above, losses do nothing to contribute to a succesful portfolio. There has been a lot of introspection in all of the component parts of the businesses. To some extent we have been very slow to adopt primary economies that the lo-co's realized years ago. Whilst that isn't a good thing, there is a lot of margin for savings that aren't there to competitors. This will significantly turn around the numbers. When you add that to the in-house plans, the outlook is very good indeed.
Nothing in life or business is guaranteed, and it is a basic economic tenet that profit is payment for risk. However as anybody with their own private company knows all too well, businesses are structured towards the growth of the business and providing the income for the owners. Profit is what tax is paid on, so it is rarely a spectacular number.
For those joining Monarch now, I sincerely believe they have a good future. I do not doubt that ongoing evolution will bring changes, some of which will be unwelcome, but accepting the reality of risk, many of the fundamentals are very good.
As it relates to the basis of this thread, Monarch is a company that has always recruited quality people from a spectrum of backgrounds: Military career changers; Experienced self improver civilian pilots; Cadets from affiliated integrated training schools. As a TRTO we are well placed and have no particular aversion to offering type specific training courses to otherwise well qualified pilots. This diversity of recruitment provides an element of chlorine to the group demographic pool. Within each recruitment profile, the terms and conditions on offer are very fair. Where there is a price point differential (such as with cadets) the apprenticeship period is usually less than 18 months, and then it is a level playing field.
If you read this thread from the start, and you read a few other similar long threads, you will find it is generally the same people wading in with ill informed and often vacuous comments. That can't be helped, and it is the nature of this particular beast.
Monarch is a good company and a good employer. Within the confines of professional confidentiality, discretion, and experience, I have tried to show why it is a good company. It's strengths lie in it's resources which are not as fragile as some people imagine. They also lie in its staff. Not just pilots, but engineers, cabin crew, managers, apprentices and admin' staff.
That is why you see so little criticism or bad mouthing of the business from anybody that actually knows anything about the reality of it.