April 2010 Monarch teetered on the edge of failure following the Ash Cloud.
They have now abandoned that long held business model and bought new aircraft for new routes and new bases. Trouble is they pay too much money for too inflexible crew and I doubt they got aircraft anywhere near as cheaply as Ryan or Easy did when they ordered hundreds when the makers were desperate. So their cost base is higher. Their marketing budget will have to be higher again to win new customers on new routes from new bases.
They, like all airlines in that scenario, will bleed money heavily. Now I have no idea whether the owner cares about this or not. But neither do you. There is the gamble. Given the economic clouds forecast for 2013 I'd say the odds are risky.
Aer Lingus, a company with a significantly higher public awareness than Monarch, couldn't make LGW or BFS work when they put some A320's in there five years ago with crews on degraded contracts. Does Monarch know something Aer Lingus didn't? Maybe. Maybe not. Similarly there was a lot of excitement when BMI announced they were entering the point to point direct sales market with BMI Baby. Its taken nine years for that to come to an end in deep losses despite 2003 - 2007 being boom years.
Those joining for the present expansion are getting a better deal than they are currently on. That's part of the problem. It won't last. Then you're job hunting in 49degree heat and still carrying those massive training loans you signed up for
